What it would have taken for Te Mayonna Brown.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Gilbert starts 42.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,969 net votes toward Brown, a 1.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 40.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Brown the one standing if one comes.
Oliver G. Gilbert III won.
Te Mayonna Brown finished 19.4 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.9-point national wave.
91,175 votes.
That is half of the 182,348 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Brown stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 1,790 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gilbert today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Brown needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gilbert.
Who. Few precincts give Brown's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 1,969 net votes against a gap of 76,558. Still 74,589 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 40.9 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 20% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+40Precinct V009 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +16. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 02+40Precinct V015 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
- 03+37Precinct V028 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Brown +2. 3.0% split their ticket.
- 04+37Precinct V008 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 05+36Precinct V017 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +9. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 06+34Precinct W002 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +50. 2.8% split their ticket.
- 07+30Precinct W007 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +59. 2.5% split their ticket.
- 08+29Precinct S003 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +38. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 09+28Precinct X002 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +19. 2.8% split their ticket.
- 10+27Precinct Q081 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +76. 3.1% split their ticket.
- 11+27Precinct V006 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +25. 3.0% split their ticket.
- 12+27Precinct V019 (Broward County)persuadeStarting line Gilbert +23. 2.0% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct V009 (Broward County) carries the most.
Precinct V009 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 40. It sits at Gilbert +16 on our starting line, and 3.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct V017 (Broward County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct V017 (Broward County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Brown has the cash edge.
As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Brown had $299K in cash on hand to Gilbert's $229K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,969 net votes. The gap is 76,558. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.1 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Brown's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 220
- Slope
- 0.981
- R²
- 0.990
- Residual SD
- 2.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 32
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Brown's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Brown, with Gilbert, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,790 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Brown is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 38.6 points; Mucarsel-Powell carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 41.2 points; Demings carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 46.3 points.
- Brown wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gilbert.
- It would take a national shift of about 40.9 points toward Brown's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
445 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 8,493 dials to 2,831 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,615 at our published rates: 2,831 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Te Mayonna Brown (R)
Entrepreneur.
Cash on hand $298,626 and $313,318 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Oliver G. Gilbert III (D)
Miami-Dade County commissioner since 2020, previously mayor of Miami Gardens (2012 to 2020), and an attorney.
Cash on hand $229,093 and $812,143 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.
Patricia Gonzalez (Wri)
Businesswoman.
Cash on hand $0 and $1,333 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through September 23, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Te Mayonna Brown lost
Unofficial result: Te Mayonna Brown 19.3%, Oliver G. Gilbert III 80.7%, a margin of 61.4 points. Our starting line had Gilbert +42.0; Brown fell short of that line by 19.4 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gilbert +42.0. Te Mayonna Brown needs 76,558 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won FL-24 in 2026?
Oliver G. Gilbert III won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Te Mayonna Brown 19.3%, Oliver G. Gilbert III 80.7%, a margin of 61.4 points. Our starting line had Gilbert +42.0; Brown fell short of that line by 19.4 points.
Can Te Mayonna Brown win Florida's 24th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 1,969 net votes against a gap of 76,558; the rest would take a 40.9-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Te Mayonna Brown needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct V009 (Broward County), Precinct V015 (Broward County), Precinct V028 (Broward County), Precinct V008 (Broward County), Precinct V017 (Broward County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Te Mayonna Brown need to persuade?
About 895 voters who lean Oliver G. Gilbert III today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,790 persuadable voters leaning Oliver G. Gilbert III.
When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?
Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Florida Division of Elections, election results
- Florida Senate, 2026 congressional plan EOGPCRP2026 (block assignments)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)