Florida · U.S. House · District 24 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Te Mayonna Brown.

Gilbert starts 42.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 1,969 net votes toward Brown, a 1.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 40.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Brown the one standing if one comes.

76,558

net votes between Brown and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

42.0 pts

Gilbert lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find76,558

WherePrecinct V009 (Broward County), Precinct V015 (Broward County), Precinct V028 (Broward County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Gilbert +42.0. Te Mayonna Brown needs 76,558 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

91,175 votes.

That is half of the 182,348 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Brown stands today, and what is missing:

52,020 Te Mayonna Brown baseline

128,578 Oliver G. Gilbert III baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Brown wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Brown short by 74,642.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,790

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,790

Who. 1,790 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gilbert today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Brown needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gilbert.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14

Who. At least 14 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brown's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

178

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 510

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Brown's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 1,969 net votes against a gap of 76,558. Still 74,589 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 40.9 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct V009 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +16. 3.2% split their ticket.
+40
02
Precinct V015 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
+40
03
Precinct V028 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Brown +2. 3.0% split their ticket.
+37
04
Precinct V008 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
+37
05
Precinct V017 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +9. 3.5% split their ticket.
+36
06
Precinct W002 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +50. 2.8% split their ticket.
+34
07
Precinct W007 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +59. 2.5% split their ticket.
+30
08
Precinct S003 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +38. 3.2% split their ticket.
+29
09
Precinct X002 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +19. 2.8% split their ticket.
+28
10
Precinct Q081 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +76. 3.1% split their ticket.
+27
11
Precinct V006 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +25. 3.0% split their ticket.
+27
12
Precinct V019 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Gilbert +23. 2.0% split their ticket.
+27

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct V009 (Broward County) carries the most.

Precinct V009 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 40. It sits at Gilbert +16 on our starting line, and 3.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct V017 (Broward County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct V017 (Broward County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Brown has the cash edge.

As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Brown had $299K in cash on hand to Gilbert's $229K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 1,969 net votes. The gap is 76,558. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.1 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Brown's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 220
Slope: 0.981
R²: 0.990
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 32

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Brown's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Brown, with Gilbert, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,790 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14 of them live where Brown is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 38.6 points; Mucarsel-Powell carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 41.2 points; Demings carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 46.3 points.

Brown wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gilbert.
The national environment moves about 40.9 points toward Brown's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

445 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 8,493 dials to 2,831 households, before the last ballot is cast.

2,831

households on the target list

8,493

dials across three attempts

445

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $1,615 at our published rates: 2,831 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Te Mayonna Brown (R)

Entrepreneur.

Cash on hand $298,626 and $313,318 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Oliver G. Gilbert III (D)

Miami-Dade County commissioner since 2020, previously mayor of Miami Gardens (2012 to 2020), and an attorney.

Cash on hand $229,093 and $812,143 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Patricia Gonzalez (Wri)

Businesswoman.

Cash on hand $0 and $1,333 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through September 23, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gilbert +42.0. Te Mayonna Brown needs 76,558 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Te Mayonna Brown win Florida's 24th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 1,969 net votes; the gap is 76,558. The rest would take a 40.9-point national shift.

Where are the votes Te Mayonna Brown needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct V009 (Broward County), Precinct V015 (Broward County), Precinct V028 (Broward County), Precinct V008 (Broward County), Precinct V017 (Broward County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Te Mayonna Brown need to persuade?

About 895 voters who lean Oliver G. Gilbert III today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,790 persuadable voters leaning Oliver G. Gilbert III.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.