Upset Brief · FL-25 · Scott Singer (R) vs. Jared Moskowitz (D), incumbent

Singer can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
59%
odds with the plan
5,466
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct Y001 (Broward County)
    Starting line Singer +22. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +140
  2. 02
    Precinct B001 (Broward County)
    Starting line Singer +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 608 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  3. 03
    Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Singer +52. 0.8% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +98
  4. 04
    Precinct V024 (Broward County)
    Starting line Singer +36. 1.5% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +88
  5. 05
    Precinct 1730 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Singer +20. 2.1% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80
  6. 06
    Precinct 8899 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Singer +12. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,376 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +79

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,730 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moskowitz today.
    +2,730
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,961 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Singer's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,111
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Singer's way.
    +341
What has to be true
  1. Singer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moskowitz.
  2. In Precinct Y001 (Broward County) and Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (one has a documented methodological flaw), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    230 precincts, R² 0.966, 35 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,143 to 35,280 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Singer $476,478 cash on hand; Moskowitz $1,882,634.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,142 households, 48,427 dials, about 2,538 live conversations: an estimated $6,400 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,400 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.