Florida · U.S. House · District 25 · November 3, 2026

How Scott Singer wins.

A true toss-up between Singer and Moskowitz: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 5,466 net votes, most of them in Precinct Y001 (Broward County), Precinct B001 (Broward County) and Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County).

5,466

net votes between Singer and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up (the raters; no independent poll)

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

Singer can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan59%

Net votes to find5,466

WherePrecinct Y001 (Broward County), Precinct B001 (Broward County), Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Moskowitz +0.0. Scott Singer needs 5,466 net votes. Odds 50% today, 59% with the plan.

The number

136,649 votes.

That is half of the 273,296 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Singer stands today, and what is missing:

135,658 Scott Singer baseline

135,658 Jared Moskowitz baseline

Starting line: a tie (Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 59% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Singer wins in

59%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Singer by 4,234.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,730

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,730

Who. 2,730 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moskowitz today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Singer needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Moskowitz.

Mobilize

1,111

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,961

Who. At least 16,961 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Singer's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

341

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 973

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Singer's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,182 net votes against a gap of 5,466. Still 1,284 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 24% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct Y001 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +22. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+140
02
Precinct B001 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 608 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+104
03
Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +52. 0.8% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+98
04
Precinct V024 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +36. 1.5% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+88
05
Precinct 1730 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +20. 2.1% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
06
Precinct 8899 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +12. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,376 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
07
Precinct C002 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +14. 1.6% split their ticket. About 992 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+76
08
Precinct A002 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +19. 2.5% split their ticket. About 584 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+75
09
Precinct B002 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +28. 1.0% split their ticket. About 608 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+75
10
Precinct 1734 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +31. 1.8% split their ticket. About 438 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
11
Precinct 1703 (Palm Beach County)mobilize
Starting line Singer +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 519 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+58
12
Precinct S004 (Broward County)persuade
Starting line Moskowitz +4. 3.5% split their ticket.
+52

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct Y001 (Broward County) carries the most.

Precinct Y001 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 140. It sits at Singer +22 on our starting line, and 1.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County) is a turnout race.

Singer's side leads Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County) by about 52 points on our starting line, and it cast about 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 92 votes there.

Precinct S004 (Broward County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct S004 (Broward County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Moskowitz had $1.88 million in cash on hand to Singer's $476K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Singer's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 230
Slope: 1.014
R²: 0.966
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 35

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Singer's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Singer, with Moskowitz, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,730 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,961 of them live where Singer is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 9.2 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 7.4 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 5.2 points.

Singer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moskowitz.
In Precinct Y001 (Broward County) and Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (one has a documented methodological flaw), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,538 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 48,427 dials to 16,142 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

48K

dials across three attempts

2,538

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,400 at our published rates: 16,142 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Scott Singer (R)

Mayor of Boca Raton from 2018 to 2026.

Cash on hand $476,478 and $2,256,719 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jared Moskowitz (D)

U.S. representative since 2023 who led the Florida Division of Emergency Management (2019 to 2021) under Gov. Ron DeSantis, then served on the Broward County Commission (2022); earlier he served in the Florida House (2012 to 2019) and on the Parkland City Commission.

Cash on hand $1,882,634 and $2,998,428 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Peter Jassenoff (L)

Cash on hand $60 and $10,500 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Michaelangelo Hamilton (Wri)

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moskowitz +0.0. Scott Singer needs 5,466 net votes. Odds 50% today, 59% with the plan.

Questions

Can Scott Singer win Florida's 25th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Scott Singer needs 5,466 net votes, and recent Florida results show about 4,182 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 100 percent of that.

Where are the votes Scott Singer needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct Y001 (Broward County), Precinct B001 (Broward County), Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County), Precinct V024 (Broward County), Precinct 1730 (Palm Beach County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Scott Singer need to persuade?

About 1,365 voters who lean Jared Moskowitz today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,730 persuadable voters leaning Jared Moskowitz.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.