Upset Brief · FL-26 · Nicole Locklin (D) vs. Mario Diaz-Balart (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.3-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
36,176
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct W018 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +29. 2.3% split their ticket. About 2,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +279
  2. 02
    Precinct W009 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +44. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,455 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +251
  3. 03
    Precinct X013 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +40. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,415 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +213
  4. 04
    Precinct W016 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +22. 2.0% split their ticket. About 2,111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +191
  5. 05
    Precinct W014 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +23. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,615 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +151
  6. 06
    Precinct W010 (Broward County)
    Starting line Locklin +34. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +146

The top 12 precincts carry 46% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,953 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Diaz-Balart today.
    +1,953
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 23,228 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Locklin's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,744
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Locklin's way.
    +233

Plus a national shift of 15.3 points of margin (32,245 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Locklin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Diaz-Balart.
  2. In Precinct W009 (Broward County) and Precinct W018 (Broward County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.3 points toward Locklin's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    167 precincts, R² 0.994, 29 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -56,418 to -7,764 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Locklin $198,600 cash on hand; Diaz-Balart $2,538,703.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    19,182 households, 57,546 dials, about 3,015 live conversations: an estimated $7,130 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,130 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.