Florida · U.S. House · District 26 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Nicole Locklin.

Diaz-Balart starts 17.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,930 net votes toward Locklin, a 1.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 15.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Locklin the one standing if one comes.

36,176

net votes between Locklin and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

17.2 pts

Diaz-Balart lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan2%

Net votes to find36,176

WherePrecinct W018 (Broward County), Precinct W009 (Broward County), Precinct X013 (Broward County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Diaz-Balart +17.2. Nicole Locklin needs 36,176 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

105,261 votes.

That is half of the 210,520 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Locklin stands today, and what is missing:

86,400 Nicole Locklin baseline

122,575 Mario Diaz-Balart baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Locklin wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Locklin short by 32,258.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

1,953

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,953

Who. 1,953 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Diaz-Balart today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Locklin needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Diaz-Balart.

Mobilize

1,744

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,228

Who. At least 23,228 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Locklin's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

233

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 665

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Locklin's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 3,930 net votes against a gap of 36,176. Still 32,246 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 15.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 46% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct W018 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +29. 2.3% split their ticket. About 2,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+279
02
Precinct W009 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +44. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,455 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+251
03
Precinct X013 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +40. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,415 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+213
04
Precinct W016 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +22. 2.0% split their ticket. About 2,111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+191
05
Precinct W014 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +23. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,615 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151
06
Precinct W010 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +34. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+146
07
Precinct W012 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +22. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,376 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+128
08
Precinct X014 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +21. 1.0% split their ticket. About 1,294 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+106
09
Precinct W017 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +16. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,418 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
10
Precinct X019 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +11. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,676 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
11
Precinct X023 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +12. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,225 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82
12
Precinct U008 (Broward County)mobilize
Starting line Locklin +20. 3.0% split their ticket. About 657 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+81

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct W018 (Broward County) carries the most.

Precinct W018 (Broward County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 279. It sits at Locklin +29 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct W009 (Broward County) is a turnout race.

Locklin's side leads Precinct W009 (Broward County) by about 44 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,455 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 221 votes there.

Precinct U008 (Broward County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct U008 (Broward County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Diaz-Balart had $2.54 million in cash on hand to Locklin's $199K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Locklin's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 167
Slope: 1.024
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 29

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Locklin's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Locklin, with Diaz-Balart, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 1,953 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 23,228 of them live where Locklin is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.8 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.9 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 17.5 points.

Locklin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Diaz-Balart.
In Precinct W009 (Broward County) and Precinct W018 (Broward County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 15.3 points toward Locklin's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,015 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 57,546 dials to 19,182 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

58K

dials across three attempts

3,015

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,130 at our published rates: 19,182 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Nicole Locklin (D)

Lawyer.

Cash on hand $198,600 and $347,681 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

U.S. representative since 2003, dean of Florida's congressional delegation since 2021 and vice chair of the House Appropriations Committee.

Cash on hand $2,538,703 and $2,060,782 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey (NPA)

Cash on hand $1,540 and $8,924 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Diaz-Balart +17.2. Nicole Locklin needs 36,176 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can Nicole Locklin win Florida's 26th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,930 net votes; the gap is 36,176. The rest would take a 15.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Nicole Locklin needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct W018 (Broward County), Precinct W009 (Broward County), Precinct X013 (Broward County), Precinct W016 (Broward County), Precinct W014 (Broward County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Nicole Locklin need to persuade?

About 976 voters who lean Mario Diaz-Balart today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 1,953 persuadable voters leaning Mario Diaz-Balart.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.