Upset Brief · FL-04 · LaShonda "L.J." Holloway (D) vs. Aaron Bean (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.0-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
46,244
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 707 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +51. 2.4% split their ticket. About 2,306 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +417
  2. 02
    Precinct 1001 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +71. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +404
  3. 03
    Precinct 710 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +53. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +300
  4. 04
    Precinct 709 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +47. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,560 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +280
  5. 05
    Precinct 803 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +61. 1.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +224
  6. 06
    Precinct 1003 (Duval County)
    Starting line Holloway +47. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,035 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +195

The top 12 precincts carry 41% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,363 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bean today.
    +2,363
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 32,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Holloway's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,138
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Holloway's way.
    +436

Plus a national shift of 14 points of margin (39,306 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Holloway wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bean.
  2. In Precinct 707 (Duval County) and Precinct 1001 (Duval County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.0 points toward Holloway's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    145 precincts, R² 0.998, 19 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -72,290 to -6,663 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Holloway $23,633 cash on hand; Bean $1,632,550.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    26,350 households, 79,049 dials, about 4,142 live conversations: an estimated $8,811 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,811 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.