Florida · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for LaShonda "L.J." Holloway.

Bean starts 16.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,937 net votes toward Holloway, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Holloway the one standing if one comes.

46,244

net votes between Holloway and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

16.5 pts

Bean lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.0-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan2%

Net votes to find46,244

WherePrecinct 707 (Duval County), Precinct 1001 (Duval County), Precinct 710 (Duval County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Bean +16.5. LaShonda "L.J." Holloway needs 46,244 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

140,464 votes.

That is half of the 280,927 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Holloway stands today, and what is missing:

115,925 LaShonda "L.J." Holloway baseline

162,169 Aaron Bean baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Holloway wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Holloway short by 39,445.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,363

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,363

Who. 2,363 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bean today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Holloway needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bean.

Mobilize

4,138

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 32,216

Who. At least 32,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Holloway's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

436

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,245

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Holloway's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,937 net votes against a gap of 46,244. Still 39,307 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 41% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 707 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +51. 2.4% split their ticket. About 2,306 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+417
02
Precinct 1001 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +71. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+404
03
Precinct 710 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +53. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+300
04
Precinct 709 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +47. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,560 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+280
05
Precinct 803 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +61. 1.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+224
06
Precinct 1003 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +47. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,035 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+195
07
Precinct 1005 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +48. 1.5% split their ticket. About 961 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+185
08
Precinct 1002 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +53. 1.5% split their ticket. About 840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+176
09
Precinct 704 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +65. 1.7% split their ticket. About 687 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+170
10
Precinct 807 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +31. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,269 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+167
11
Precinct 804 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +49. 1.5% split their ticket. About 838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+162
12
Precinct 910 (Duval County)mobilize
Starting line Holloway +69. 3.6% split their ticket. About 508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+137

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 707 (Duval County) carries the most.

Precinct 707 (Duval County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 417. It sits at Holloway +51 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 1001 (Duval County) is a turnout race.

Holloway's side leads Precinct 1001 (Duval County) by about 71 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 386 votes there.

Precinct 910 (Duval County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 910 (Duval County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Bean had $1.63 million in cash on hand to Holloway's $24K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Holloway's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 145
Slope: 0.996
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 2.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 19

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Holloway's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Holloway, with Bean, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,363 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 32,216 of them live where Holloway is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.8 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 12.0 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.0 points.

Holloway wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bean.
In Precinct 707 (Duval County) and Precinct 1001 (Duval County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.0 points toward Holloway's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,142 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 79,049 dials to 26,350 households, before the last ballot is cast.

26K

households on the target list

79K

dials across three attempts

4,142

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,811 at our published rates: 26,350 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

LaShonda "L.J." Holloway (D)

Fourth-generation Floridian with more than 20 years of public service, beginning at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, who later directed the District of Columbia Office of Documents and Administrative Issuances; she graduated from Edward Waters College and the University of Florida College of Law.

Cash on hand $23,633 and $27,348 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Aaron Bean (R)

U.S. representative since 2023 who previously served in the Florida Senate (2012 to 2022) and the Florida House (2000 to 2008) representing the First Coast.

Cash on hand $1,632,550 and $2,163,376 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Todd Schaefer (NPA)

Retired U.S. Navy veteran who served from 1998 to 2018.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mike Sell (Flo)

Raised in a Navy family as the son and grandson of sailors, he built a career in operational excellence after starting in minimum-wage jobs in high school.

Cash on hand $4,915 and $24,186 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bean +16.5. LaShonda "L.J." Holloway needs 46,244 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can LaShonda "L.J." Holloway win Florida's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,937 net votes; the gap is 46,244. The rest would take a 14.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes LaShonda "L.J." Holloway needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 707 (Duval County), Precinct 1001 (Duval County), Precinct 710 (Duval County), Precinct 709 (Duval County), Precinct 803 (Duval County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does LaShonda "L.J." Holloway need to persuade?

About 1,182 voters who lean Aaron Bean today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,363 persuadable voters leaning Aaron Bean.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.