Upset Brief · FL-06 · Eric Yonce (D) vs. Randy Fine (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.2-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
106,760
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 606 (Volusia County)
    Starting line Yonce +64. 3.2% split their ticket. About 699 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +165
  2. 02
    Precinct 603 (Volusia County)
    Starting line Yonce +35. 3.1% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +96
  3. 03
    Precinct 212 (Volusia County)
    Starting line Yonce +26. 2.3% split their ticket. About 688 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +79
  4. 04
    Precinct 607 (Volusia County)
    Starting line Yonce +32. 2.0% split their ticket. About 538 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  5. 05
    Precinct 503 (Volusia County)
    Starting line Fine +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +67
  6. 06
    Precinct 3050 (Marion County)
    Starting line Fine +37. 2.0% split their ticket.
    +66

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fine today.
    +3,823
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,520 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Yonce's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +573
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Yonce's way.
    +339

Plus a national shift of 31.2 points of margin (102,025 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Yonce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fine.
  2. In Precinct 606 (Volusia County) and Precinct 603 (Volusia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 31.2 points toward Yonce's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    217 precincts, R² 0.986, 39 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -139,513 to -64,614 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Yonce $34,096 cash on hand; Fine $1,191,059.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    9,063 households, 27,190 dials, about 1,425 live conversations: an estimated $4,270 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,270 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.