Florida · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Eric Yonce.

Fine starts 32.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,735 net votes toward Yonce, a 1.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 31.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Yonce the one standing if one comes.

106,760

net votes between Yonce and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

32.6 pts

Fine lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find106,760

WherePrecinct 606 (Volusia County), Precinct 603 (Volusia County), Precinct 212 (Volusia County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Fine +32.6. Eric Yonce needs 106,760 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

163,742 votes.

That is half of the 327,483 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Yonce stands today, and what is missing:

108,939 Eric Yonce baseline

215,699 Randy Fine baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Yonce wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Yonce short by 102,034.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,823

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,823

Who. 3,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fine today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Yonce needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fine.

Mobilize

573

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,520

Who. At least 4,520 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Yonce's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

339

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 970

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Yonce's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,735 net votes against a gap of 106,760. Still 102,025 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 31.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 606 (Volusia County)mobilize
Starting line Yonce +64. 3.2% split their ticket. About 699 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+165
02
Precinct 603 (Volusia County)mobilize
Starting line Yonce +35. 3.1% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+96
03
Precinct 212 (Volusia County)mobilize
Starting line Yonce +26. 2.3% split their ticket. About 688 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
04
Precinct 607 (Volusia County)mobilize
Starting line Yonce +32. 2.0% split their ticket. About 538 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
05
Precinct 503 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Fine +26. 2.4% split their ticket.
+67
06
Precinct 3050 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Fine +37. 2.0% split their ticket.
+66
07
Precinct 601 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Fine +30. 1.9% split their ticket.
+59
08
Precinct 614 (Volusia County)mobilize
Starting line Yonce +38. 2.5% split their ticket. About 364 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
09
Precinct 216 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Fine +16. 2.0% split their ticket.
+54
10
Precinct 506 (Flagler County)persuade
Starting line Fine +22. 2.1% split their ticket.
+54
11
Precinct 501 (Flagler County)persuade
Starting line Fine +31. 2.1% split their ticket.
+53
12
Precinct 701 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Fine +23. 3.1% split their ticket.
+52

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 606 (Volusia County) carries the most.

Precinct 606 (Volusia County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 165. It sits at Yonce +64 on our starting line, and 3.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 603 (Volusia County) is a turnout race.

Yonce's side leads Precinct 603 (Volusia County) by about 35 points on our starting line, and it cast about 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 65 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Fine had $1.19 million in cash on hand to Yonce's $34K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 4,735 net votes. The gap is 106,760. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.4 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Yonce's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 217
Slope: 0.954
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 39

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Yonce's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Yonce, with Fine, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,823 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,520 of them live where Yonce is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.1 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 27.8 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 32.9 points.

Yonce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fine.
In Precinct 606 (Volusia County) and Precinct 603 (Volusia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 31.2 points toward Yonce's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,425 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 27,190 dials to 9,063 households, before the last ballot is cast.

9,063

households on the target list

27K

dials across three attempts

1,425

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,270 at our published rates: 9,063 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eric Yonce (D)

Florida native raised in the 6th District who spent more than 20 years in big-box retail leadership and now works in real estate and runs a small business restoring vintage Airstream trailers.

Cash on hand $34,096 and $325,710 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Randy Fine (R)

U.S. representative since April 2025 who previously served in the Florida Senate (2024 to 2025) and the Florida House (2016 to 2024); he holds a bachelor's degree and an MBA from Harvard.

Cash on hand $1,191,059 and $4,286,207 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Andrew Parrott (L)

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Alec Pavlik (Wri)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fine +32.6. Eric Yonce needs 106,760 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eric Yonce win Florida's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,735 net votes; the gap is 106,760. The rest would take a 31.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Eric Yonce needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 606 (Volusia County), Precinct 603 (Volusia County), Precinct 212 (Volusia County), Precinct 607 (Volusia County), Precinct 503 (Volusia County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eric Yonce need to persuade?

About 1,912 voters who lean Randy Fine today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,823 persuadable voters leaning Randy Fine.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.