Upset Brief · FL-07 · Bale Dalton (D) vs. Ryan Elijah (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
49,421
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 010 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +29. 3.1% split their ticket. About 1,720 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +204
  2. 02
    Precinct 007 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +45. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,086 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188
  3. 03
    Precinct 052 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +26. 2.6% split their ticket. About 978 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +105
  4. 04
    Precinct 009 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +25. 2.7% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +96
  5. 05
    Precinct 005 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +15. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80
  6. 06
    Precinct 016 (Seminole County)
    Starting line Dalton +27. 2.4% split their ticket. About 717 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,902 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elijah today.
    +3,902
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 8,842 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dalton's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +712
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dalton's way.
    +491

Plus a national shift of 14.3 points of margin (44,317 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Dalton wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elijah.
  2. In Precinct 010 (Seminole County) and Precinct 007 (Seminole County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Dalton's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    156 precincts, R² 0.985, 22 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,945 to -8,309 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Dalton $475,858 cash on hand; Elijah $186,155.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,453 households, 37,359 dials, about 1,958 live conversations: an estimated $5,557 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,557 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.