Florida · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Bale Dalton.

Elijah starts 15.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,105 net votes toward Dalton, a 1.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dalton the one standing if one comes.

49,421

net votes between Dalton and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

15.9 pts

Elijah lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan2%

Net votes to find49,421

WherePrecinct 010 (Seminole County), Precinct 007 (Seminole County), Precinct 052 (Seminole County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Elijah +15.9. Bale Dalton needs 49,421 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

155,038 votes.

That is half of the 310,074 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dalton stands today, and what is missing:

128,687 Bale Dalton baseline

178,108 Ryan Elijah baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dalton wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dalton short by 43,996.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,902

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,902

Who. 3,902 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elijah today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dalton needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Elijah.

Mobilize

712

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,842

Who. At least 8,842 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dalton's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

491

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,402

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dalton's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,105 net votes against a gap of 49,421. Still 44,316 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 22% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 010 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +29. 3.1% split their ticket. About 1,720 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+204
02
Precinct 007 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +45. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,086 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+188
03
Precinct 052 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +26. 2.6% split their ticket. About 978 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+105
04
Precinct 009 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +25. 2.7% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+96
05
Precinct 005 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +15. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
06
Precinct 016 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +27. 2.4% split their ticket. About 717 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
07
Precinct 311 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Elijah +34. 2.5% split their ticket.
+67
08
Precinct 054 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +12. 2.6% split their ticket. About 879 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
09
Precinct 401 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Elijah +8. 3.3% split their ticket.
+59
10
Precinct 710 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Elijah +26. 3.0% split their ticket.
+55
11
Precinct 006 (Seminole County)mobilize
Starting line Dalton +16. 2.6% split their ticket. About 753 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+54
12
Precinct 412 (Volusia County)persuade
Starting line Elijah +17. 2.8% split their ticket.
+50

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 010 (Seminole County) carries the most.

Precinct 010 (Seminole County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 204. It sits at Dalton +29 on our starting line, and 3.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 007 (Seminole County) is a turnout race.

Dalton's side leads Precinct 007 (Seminole County) by about 45 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,086 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 165 votes there.

Precinct 401 (Volusia County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 401 (Volusia County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Dalton has the cash edge.

As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Dalton had $476K in cash on hand to Elijah's $186K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dalton's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 156
Slope: 0.962
R²: 0.985
Residual SD: 2.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 22

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dalton's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dalton, with Elijah, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,902 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 8,842 of them live where Dalton is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.5 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 11.5 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.9 points.

Dalton wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elijah.
In Precinct 010 (Seminole County) and Precinct 007 (Seminole County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Dalton's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,958 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 37,359 dials to 12,453 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

37K

dials across three attempts

1,958

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,557 at our published rates: 12,453 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Bale Dalton (D)

Central Florida native and U.S. Naval Academy graduate who has served more than 24 years in the Navy and Navy Reserve, 13 on active duty as a helicopter pilot with deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa and the Pacific; he later served as NASA chief of staff.

Cash on hand $475,858 and $1,378,109 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Ryan Elijah (R)

Former WOFL (Fox 35 Orlando) news anchor and reporter who spent 14 years as a public figure in the community; he earned a bachelor's degree from Anderson University.

Cash on hand $186,155 and $355,955 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Christopher Dennison (L)

Cash on hand $60 and $10,500 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Elijah +15.9. Bale Dalton needs 49,421 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can Bale Dalton win Florida's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,105 net votes; the gap is 49,421. The rest would take a 14.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Bale Dalton needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 010 (Seminole County), Precinct 007 (Seminole County), Precinct 052 (Seminole County), Precinct 009 (Seminole County), Precinct 005 (Seminole County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Bale Dalton need to persuade?

About 1,951 voters who lean Ryan Elijah today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,902 persuadable voters leaning Ryan Elijah.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.