Upset Brief · FL-08 · Jennifer Jenkins (D) vs. Mike Haridopolos (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.0-point national wave.

2%
odds today
17%
odds with the plan
32,988
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 309 (Brevard County)
    Starting line Haridopolos +6. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +335
  2. 02
    Precinct 519 (Brevard County)
    Starting line even. 2.1% split their ticket.
    +287
  3. 03
    Precinct 539 (Orange County)
    Starting line Jenkins +36. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +268
  4. 04
    Precinct 438 (Orange County)
    Starting line Jenkins +27. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +261
  5. 05
    Precinct 205 (Brevard County)
    Starting line Haridopolos +31. 2.9% split their ticket.
    +249
  6. 06
    Precinct 313 (Brevard County)
    Starting line Haridopolos +3. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +243

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,908 leaning Haridopolos today.
    +14,908
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 22,985 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jenkins's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,915
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jenkins's way.
    +562

Plus a national shift of 5 points of margin (15,603 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Jenkins wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Haridopolos.
  2. In Precinct 539 (Orange County) and Precinct 435 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.0 points toward Jenkins's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    179 precincts, R² 0.978, 40 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -42,914 to 11,866 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Jenkins $108,111 cash on hand; Haridopolos $1,197,777.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    37,541 households, 112,624 dials, about 5,901 live conversations: an estimated $11,619 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,619 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.