Florida · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Jennifer Jenkins.

Haridopolos starts 10.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 17,385 net votes toward Jenkins, a 5.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 5.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Jenkins the one standing if one comes.

32,988

net votes between Jenkins and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

10.5 pts

Haridopolos lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.0-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan17%

Net votes to find32,988

WherePrecinct 309 (Brevard County), Precinct 519 (Brevard County), Precinct 539 (Orange County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Haridopolos +10.5. Jennifer Jenkins needs 32,988 net votes. Odds 2% today, 17% with the plan.

The number

156,566 votes.

That is half of the 313,131 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Jenkins stands today, and what is missing:

138,315 Jennifer Jenkins baseline

171,303 Mike Haridopolos baseline

Starting line: Haridopolos +10.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 17% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Jenkins wins in

17%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Jenkins short by 15,623.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

15K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,908

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,908 leaning Haridopolos today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Jenkins needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Haridopolos.

Mobilize

1,915

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 22,985

Who. At least 22,985 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jenkins's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

562

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,606

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jenkins's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 17,385 net votes against a gap of 32,988. Still 15,603 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 309 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +6. 2.2% split their ticket.
+335
02
Precinct 519 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line even. 2.1% split their ticket.
+287
03
Precinct 539 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Jenkins +36. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+268
04
Precinct 438 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Jenkins +27. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+261
05
Precinct 205 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +31. 2.9% split their ticket.
+249
06
Precinct 313 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +3. 2.2% split their ticket.
+243
07
Precinct 435 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Jenkins +44. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,167 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+243
08
Precinct 516 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +1. 2.6% split their ticket.
+241
09
Precinct 510 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +7. 2.0% split their ticket.
+227
10
Precinct 427 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +20. 3.1% split their ticket.
+212
11
Precinct 422 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +20. 2.8% split their ticket.
+210
12
Precinct 113 (Brevard County)persuade
Starting line Haridopolos +22. 3.3% split their ticket.
+210

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 309 (Brevard County) carries the most.

Precinct 309 (Brevard County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 335. It sits at Haridopolos +6 on our starting line, and 2.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 539 (Orange County) is a turnout race.

Jenkins's side leads Precinct 539 (Orange County) by about 36 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 182 votes there.

Precinct 113 (Brevard County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 113 (Brevard County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Haridopolos had $1.20 million in cash on hand to Jenkins's $108K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Jenkins's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 179
Slope: 0.952
R²: 0.978
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 40

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Jenkins's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Jenkins, with Haridopolos, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 14,908 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 22,985 of them live where Jenkins is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.2 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.1 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 20.5 points.

Jenkins wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Haridopolos.
In Precinct 539 (Orange County) and Precinct 435 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 5.0 points toward Jenkins's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

5,901 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 112,624 dials to 37,541 households, before the last ballot is cast.

38K

households on the target list

113K

dials across three attempts

5,901

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,619 at our published rates: 37,541 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jennifer Jenkins (D)

Former Brevard County School Board member.

Cash on hand $108,111 and $725,731 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mike Haridopolos (R)

U.S. representative since 2025 and former Florida Senate president (2010 to 2012) who served in the Florida Senate from 2003 to 2012 and the Florida House from 2000 to 2003; he is a former educator.

Cash on hand $1,197,777 and $1,824,838 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Haridopolos +10.5. Jennifer Jenkins needs 32,988 net votes. Odds 2% today, 17% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jennifer Jenkins win Florida's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 17,385 net votes; the gap is 32,988. The rest would take a 5.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Jennifer Jenkins needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 309 (Brevard County), Precinct 519 (Brevard County), Precinct 539 (Orange County), Precinct 438 (Orange County), Precinct 205 (Brevard County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jennifer Jenkins need to persuade?

About 7,454 voters who lean Mike Haridopolos today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,908 persuadable voters leaning Mike Haridopolos.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.