Upset Brief · FL-09 · Darren Soto (D) vs. Dan Green (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
56,300
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2002 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Soto +18. 3.6% split their ticket. About 2,576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +236
  2. 02
    Precinct 2004 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Soto +19. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +194
  3. 03
    Precinct 429 (Orange County)
    Starting line Soto +23. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,325 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +135
  4. 04
    Precinct 427 (Orange County)
    Starting line Soto +15. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +123
  5. 05
    Precinct 3009 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Soto +13. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,829 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +117
  6. 06
    Precinct 2105 (Osceola County)
    Starting line Soto +17. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,390 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +113

The top 12 precincts carry 28% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,446 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Green today.
    +3,446
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 19,540 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Soto's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,155
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Soto's way.
    +355

Plus a national shift of 20.2 points of margin (51,344 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Soto wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Green.
  2. In Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) and Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.2 points toward Soto's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    209 precincts, R² 0.980, 41 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -80,627 to -21,888 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Soto $1,187,355 cash on hand; Green $363,243.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,938 households, 56,814 dials, about 2,977 live conversations: an estimated $7,039 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,039 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.