Florida · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Darren Soto.

Q: Can Darren Soto win Florida's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,956 net votes; the gap is 56,300. The rest would take a 20.2-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Darren Soto needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2002 (Osceola County), Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), Precinct 429 (Orange County), Precinct 427 (Orange County), Precinct 3009 (Osceola County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Darren Soto need to persuade?

About 1,723 voters who lean Dan Green today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,446 persuadable voters leaning Dan Green.

Q: When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Green starts 22.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,956 net votes toward Soto, a 1.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Soto the one standing if one comes.

56,300

net votes between Soto and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

22.1 pts

Green lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find56,300

WherePrecinct 2002 (Osceola County), Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), Precinct 429 (Orange County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Green +22.1. Darren Soto needs 56,300 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

127,323 votes.

That is half of the 254,644 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Soto stands today, and what is missing:

97,946 Darren Soto baseline

154,246 Dan Green baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Soto wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Soto short by 51,117.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,446

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,446

Who. 3,446 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Green today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Soto needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Green.

Mobilize

1,155

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,540

Who. At least 19,540 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Soto's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

355

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,014

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Soto's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,956 net votes against a gap of 56,300. Still 51,344 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 28% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 2002 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +18. 3.6% split their ticket. About 2,576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+236
02
Precinct 2004 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +19. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+194
03
Precinct 429 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +23. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,325 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+135
04
Precinct 427 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +15. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+123
05
Precinct 3009 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +13. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,829 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+117
06
Precinct 2105 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +17. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,390 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+113
07
Precinct 4201 (Osceola County)persuade
Starting line Green +18. 3.7% split their ticket.
+102
08
Precinct 321 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +18. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,006 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+80
09
Precinct 5200 (Osceola County)persuade
Starting line Green +23. 3.9% split their ticket.
+78
10
Precinct 428 (Orange County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +19. 3.0% split their ticket. About 938 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+76
11
Precinct 32 (Indian River County)persuade
Starting line Green +40. 5.6% split their ticket.
+73
12
Precinct 3000 (Osceola County)mobilize
Starting line Soto +13. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,028 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+66

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) carries the most.

Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 236. It sits at Soto +18 on our starting line, and 3.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 2004 (Osceola County) is a turnout race.

Soto's side leads Precinct 2004 (Osceola County) by about 19 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 132 votes there.

Precinct 32 (Indian River County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 32 (Indian River County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Soto has the cash edge.

As of July 29, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Soto had $1.19 million in cash on hand to Green's $363K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Soto's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 209
Slope: 0.906
R²: 0.980
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Soto's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Soto, with Green, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,446 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 19,540 of them live where Soto is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.8 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 17.2 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 22.0 points.

Soto wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Green.
In Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) and Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 20.2 points toward Soto's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,977 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 56,814 dials to 18,938 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

57K

dials across three attempts

2,977

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,039 at our published rates: 18,938 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog · incumbent

Darren Soto (D)

U.S. representative since 2017 and an attorney who served in the Florida House (2007 to 2012) and Florida Senate (2012 to 2016) representing Central Florida.

Cash on hand $1,187,355 and $2,157,834 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Dan Green (R)

Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development and a U.S. Navy Reserve officer.

Cash on hand $363,243 and $1,298,516 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Green +22.1. Darren Soto needs 56,300 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Darren Soto win Florida's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,956 net votes; the gap is 56,300. The rest would take a 20.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Darren Soto needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2002 (Osceola County), Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), Precinct 429 (Orange County), Precinct 427 (Orange County), Precinct 3009 (Osceola County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Darren Soto need to persuade?

About 1,723 voters who lean Dan Green today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,446 persuadable voters leaning Dan Green.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.