Upset Brief · Florida U.S. Senate · Angie Nixon (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R), incumbent

Nixon can win. The math closes using 89 percent of what history allows.

14%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
411,890
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Broward County
    Starting line Nixon +28. 27,642 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 281,503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +54,957
  2. 02
    Orange County
    Starting line Nixon +21. 19,726 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 204,874 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +35,725
  3. 03
    Miami-Dade County
    Starting line Nixon +1. 30,512 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 389,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +33,543
  4. 04
    Palm Beach County
    Starting line Nixon +10. 24,903 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 207,213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +31,652
  5. 05
    Hillsborough County
    Starting line Nixon +4. 22,057 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 194,125 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +28,005
  6. 06
    Pinellas County
    Starting line Nixon +3. 19,468 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 98,240 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +22,375

The top 12 counties carry 66% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 360,075 leaning Moody today.
    +319,736
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 938,694 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Nixon's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +101,882
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Nixon's way.
    +10,866
What has to be true
  1. Nixon wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moody.
  2. In the precincts Nixon's side carries in Broward County and Orange County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 89 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    5,733 precincts, R² 0.986, 891 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -649,096 to 698,989 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Nixon $264,978 cash on hand; Moody $8,491,175.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    933,749 households, 2,801,247 dials, about 146,785 live conversations: an estimated $256,688 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $256,688 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.