Florida · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Angie Nixon wins.

Moody starts 5.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Nixon needs 411,890 net votes, and the math closes using 89 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Broward County, Orange County and Miami-Dade County.

411,890

net votes between Nixon and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 24.

5.3 pts

Moody lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Florida races ranked ›

Nixon can win. The math closes using 89 percent of what history allows.

Odds today14%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find411,890

WhereBroward County, Orange County, Miami-Dade County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Moody +5.3. Angie Nixon needs 411,890 net votes. Odds 14% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

3,900,815 votes.

That is half of the 7,801,628 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Nixon stands today, and what is missing:

3,659,048 Angie Nixon baseline

4,070,938 Ashley Moody baseline

Starting line: Moody +5.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

14% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Nixon wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

14%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves89%

The plan on this page sits at 89%. Median outcome at this setting: Nixon by 18,251.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

320K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 360,075

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 360,075 leaning Moody today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Nixon needs to win 44 percent of the ones now leaning Moody.

Mobilize

102K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 938,694

Who. At least 938,694 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Nixon's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 34,963

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Nixon's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 432,484 net votes against a gap of 411,890. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 66% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Broward Countymobilize
Starting line Nixon +28. 27,642 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 281,503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+54,957
02
Orange Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +21. 19,726 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 204,874 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+35,725
03
Miami-Dade Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +1. 30,512 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 389,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+33,543
04
Palm Beach Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +10. 24,903 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 207,213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+31,652
05
Hillsborough Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +4. 22,057 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 194,125 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+28,005
06
Pinellas Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +3. 19,468 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 98,240 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+22,375
07
Duval Countypersuade
Starting line Nixon +4. 14,259 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 145,769 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+18,605
08
Lee Countypersuade
Starting line Moody +23. 13,446 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 121,296 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,360
09
Brevard Countypersuade
Starting line Moody +13. 12,746 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 97,039 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,330
10
Volusia Countypersuade
Starting line Moody +14. 10,949 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 85,998 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+11,837
11
Polk Countypersuade
Starting line Moody +14. 10,631 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 121,450 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+11,423
12
Pasco Countypersuade
Starting line Moody +17. 11,059 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 95,887 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+11,069

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Broward County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Broward County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 54,957. It sits at Nixon +28 on our starting line.

Orange County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Nixon's side carries in Orange County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 15,047 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 29, 2026, Moody had $8.49 million in cash on hand to Nixon's $265K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Nixon's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 5,733
Slope: 0.999
R²: 0.986
Residual SD: 3.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 891

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Nixon's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 24.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Nixon, with Moody, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 319,736 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Vote-by-mail ballots are already going out, and early voting runs at least October 24 through October 31 in every county (some counties start October 19). Mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 938,694 of them live where Nixon is favored. Vote-by-mail ballots must be received by the county supervisor of elections by 7 p.m. on November 3. Requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Florida has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.1 points; Scott carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 12.8 points; Rubio carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 16.4 points.

Nixon wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moody.
In the precincts Nixon's side carries in Broward County and Orange County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 89 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

146,785 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 2,801,247 dials to 933,749 households, before the last ballot is cast.

934K

households on the target list

2,801K

dials across three attempts

147K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $256,688 at our published rates: 933,749 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Angie Nixon (D)

Florida state representative from Jacksonville since 2020 and a union organizer; her Senate platform centers on Medicare for All, free child care and pre-K, and a national rent freeze.

Cash on hand $264,978 and $974,845 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Ashley Moody (R)

U.S. senator since her January 2025 appointment and previously Florida attorney general (2019 to 2025), Hillsborough County circuit judge (2007 to 2017) and an assistant U.S. attorney in the Middle District of Florida. A Plant City native, she is an alumna of the University of Florida and Stetson University.

Cash on hand $8,491,175 and $11,270,805 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 29, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Neil J. Gillespie (NPA)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moody +5.3. Angie Nixon needs 411,890 net votes. Odds 14% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Angie Nixon win the U.S. Senate race in Florida in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Angie Nixon needs 411,890 net votes, and recent Florida results show about 487,039 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 89 percent of that.

Where are the votes Angie Nixon needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Broward County, Orange County, Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach County, Hillsborough County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Angie Nixon need to persuade?

About 159,868 voters who lean Ashley Moody today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 44 percent of the 360,075 persuadable voters leaning Ashley Moody.

When does early voting start in Florida in 2026?

Early voting in Florida runs at least October 24 through October 31, 2026 in every county; some counties start as early as October 19 or add November 1. The registration deadline is October 5, requests for a mailed ballot are due by 5 p.m. on October 22, and vote-by-mail ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day. Florida does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Florida Division of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.