Upset Brief · KY-01 · Drew Williams (D) vs. James Comer (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.0-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
104,869
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 29
Where
  1. 01
    Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County)
    Starting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
    +302
  2. 02
    Indian Hills (Franklin County)
    Starting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,091 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +238
  3. 03
    New Capital (Franklin County)
    Starting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +186
  4. 04
    Bald Knob (Franklin County)
    Starting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
    +181
  5. 05
    District 2 (Marion County)
    Starting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.
    +164
  6. 06
    District 5 (Marion County)
    Starting line Comer +24. 12.4% split their ticket.
    +149

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,079 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.
    +13,079
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,262 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +728
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.
    +69

Plus a national shift of 37 points of margin (90,993 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
  2. In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 37.0 points toward Williams's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    539 precincts, R² 0.988, 88 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -119,749 to -61,706 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Williams $20,182 cash on hand; Comer $3,041,112.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,196 households, 69,589 dials, about 3,646 live conversations: an estimated $8,044 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,044 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.