Upset Brief · KY-01 · Drew Williams (D) vs. James Comer (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.0-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
104,752
net votes to find
James Comer won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County)
    Starting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
    +302
  2. 02
    Indian Hills (Franklin County)
    Starting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,094 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +238
  3. 03
    New Capital (Franklin County)
    Starting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +186
  4. 04
    Bald Knob (Franklin County)
    Starting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
    +180
  5. 05
    District 2 (Marion County)
    Starting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.
    +164
  6. 06
    District 5 (Marion County)
    Starting line Comer +24. 12.4% split their ticket.
    +149

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,066 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.
    +13,066
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,296 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +733
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.
    +69

Plus a national shift of 37 points of margin (90,884 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
  2. In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 37.0 points toward Williams's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    539 precincts, R² 0.988, 88 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -119,605 to -61,632 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Williams $20,182 cash on hand; Comer $3,041,112.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,201 households, 69,602 dials, about 3,647 live conversations: an estimated $8,046 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.