Kentucky · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Drew Williams.

Comer starts 42.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 13,876 net votes toward Williams, a 5.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 37.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Williams the one standing if one comes.

104,869

net votes between Williams and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 29.

42.6 pts

Comer lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find104,869

WhereHendron #1 Extension (McCracken County), Indian Hills (Franklin County), New Capital (Franklin County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Comer +42.6. Drew Williams needs 104,869 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

123,012 votes.

That is half of the 246,022 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Williams stands today, and what is missing:

70,257 Drew Williams baseline

175,126 James Comer baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Williams wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Williams short by 90,903.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,079

Who. 13,079 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Williams needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Comer.

Mobilize

728

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,262

Who. At least 7,262 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 197

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,876 net votes against a gap of 104,869. Still 90,993 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 37 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 13% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County)persuade
Starting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
+302
02
Indian Hills (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,091 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+238
03
New Capital (Franklin County)mobilize
Starting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+186
04
Bald Knob (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
+181
05
District 2 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.
+164
06
District 5 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Comer +24. 12.4% split their ticket.
+149
07
Northeast (Graves County)persuade
Starting line Comer +58. 11.7% split their ticket.
+108
08
District 3 (Marion County)persuade
Starting line Comer +38. 13.8% split their ticket.
+93
09
Station Springs (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Williams +4. 13.0% split their ticket.
+87
10
Northwest (Graves County)persuade
Starting line Comer +61. 10.5% split their ticket.
+84
11
South (Graves County)persuade
Starting line Comer +64. 11.0% split their ticket.
+79
12
Western Hills (Franklin County)persuade
Starting line Comer +1. 13.6% split their ticket.
+78

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) carries the most.

Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 302. It sits at Comer +35 on our starting line, and 10.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

New Capital (Franklin County) is a turnout race.

Williams's side leads New Capital (Franklin County) by about 53 points on our starting line, and it cast about 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 175 votes there.

Bald Knob (Franklin County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Bald Knob (Franklin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 16.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Comer had $3.04 million in cash on hand to Williams's $20K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Williams's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 539
Slope: 0.962
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 88

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Williams's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 29.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Williams, with Comer, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,079 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 21 to 28
Bank the ballots
No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 29 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,262 of them live where Williams is favored. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. A postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 49.4 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 47.3 points; Cameron carried the 2023 governor's race by 12.0 points.

Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 37.0 points toward Williams's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,646 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 69,589 dials to 23,196 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

70K

dials across three attempts

3,646

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,044 at our published rates: 23,196 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Drew Williams (D)

Lifelong Marshall County resident and Murray State University history graduate (2016) who has spent nearly two decades building docks and marinas in his family's businesses (Ballotpedia; campaign website).

Cash on hand $20,182 and $118,755 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

James Comer (R)

U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2016 and chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. A Monroe County farmer and Western Kentucky University agriculture graduate, he previously served as Kentucky agriculture commissioner (2012 to 2016) and in the Kentucky House (2001 to 2012).

Cash on hand $3,041,112 and $1,899,533 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Comer +42.6. Drew Williams needs 104,869 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Drew Williams win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,876 net votes; the gap is 104,869. The rest would take a 37.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Drew Williams needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County), Indian Hills (Franklin County), New Capital (Franklin County), Bald Knob (Franklin County), District 2 (Marion County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Drew Williams need to persuade?

About 6,540 voters who lean James Comer today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,079 persuadable voters leaning James Comer.

When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.