What it would have taken for Drew Williams.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Comer starts 42.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 13,868 net votes toward Williams, a 5.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 37.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Williams the one standing if one comes.
James Comer won.
Drew Williams ran 7.4 points ahead of our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 37.0-point national wave.
122,853 votes.
That is half of the 245,704 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Williams stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 13,066 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Williams needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Comer.
Who. At least 7,296 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 13,868 net votes against a gap of 104,752. Still 90,884 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 37 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 13% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+302Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County)persuadeStarting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
- 02+238Indian Hills (Franklin County)persuadeStarting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,094 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+186New Capital (Franklin County)mobilizeStarting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+180Bald Knob (Franklin County)persuadeStarting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
- 05+164District 2 (Marion County)persuadeStarting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.
- 06+149District 5 (Marion County)persuadeStarting line Comer +24. 12.4% split their ticket.
- 07+108Northeast (Graves County)persuadeStarting line Comer +58. 11.7% split their ticket.
- 08+93District 3 (Marion County)persuadeStarting line Comer +38. 13.8% split their ticket.
- 09+87Station Springs (Franklin County)persuadeStarting line Williams +4. 13.0% split their ticket.
- 10+84Northwest (Graves County)persuadeStarting line Comer +61. 10.5% split their ticket.
- 11+79South (Graves County)persuadeStarting line Comer +64. 11.0% split their ticket.
- 12+78Western Hills (Franklin County)persuadeStarting line Comer +1. 13.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) carries the most.
Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 302. It sits at Comer +35 on our starting line, and 10.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
New Capital (Franklin County) is a turnout target.
Williams's side leads New Capital (Franklin County) by about 53 points on our starting line, and it cast about 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 175 votes there.
Bald Knob (Franklin County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Bald Knob (Franklin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 16.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Comer had $3.04 million in cash on hand to Williams's $20K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Williams's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 539
- Slope
- 0.962
- R²
- 0.988
- Residual SD
- 2.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 88
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Williams's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Williams, with Comer, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 20Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,066 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3.
- October 21 to 31Bank the ballots
No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- November 1 to 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,296 of them live where Williams is favored. A postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 49.4 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 47.3 points; Cameron carried the 2023 governor's race by 12.0 points.
- Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
- In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 37.0 points toward Williams's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,647 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 69,602 dials to 23,201 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,046 at our published rates: 23,201 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Drew Williams (D)
Lifelong Marshall County resident and Murray State University history graduate (2016) who has spent nearly two decades building docks and marinas in his family's businesses.
Cash on hand $20,182 and $118,755 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
James Comer (R)
U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2016 and chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. A Monroe County farmer and Western Kentucky University agriculture graduate, he previously served as Kentucky agriculture commissioner (2012 to 2016) and in the Kentucky House (2001 to 2012).
Cash on hand $3,041,112 and $1,899,533 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Drew Williams lost
Unofficial result: Drew Williams 32.4%, James Comer 67.6%, a margin of 35.2 points. Our starting line had Comer +42.6; Williams ran ahead of that line by 7.4 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Comer +42.6. Drew Williams needs 104,869 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won KY-01 in 2026?
James Comer won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Drew Williams 32.4%, James Comer 67.6%, a margin of 35.2 points. Our starting line had Comer +42.6; Williams ran ahead of that line by 7.4 points.
Can Drew Williams win Kentucky's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 13,868 net votes against a gap of 104,752; the rest would take a 37.0-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Drew Williams needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County), Indian Hills (Franklin County), New Capital (Franklin County), Bald Knob (Franklin County), District 2 (Marion County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Drew Williams need to persuade?
About 6,533 voters who lean James Comer today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,066 persuadable voters leaning James Comer.
When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?
Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Kentucky State Board of Elections, election results
- Kentucky Secretary of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Kentucky's 1st congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Kentucky's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Drew Williams