Upset Brief · KY-03 · Maria Rodriguez (R) vs. Morgan McGarvey (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
69,249
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 29
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +2. 9.9% split their ticket.
    +98
  2. 02
    Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line McGarvey +15. 11.6% split their ticket.
    +89
  3. 03
    Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +27. 13.4% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +83
  4. 04
    Precinct 191 29 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +8. 11.5% split their ticket.
    +79
  5. 05
    Precinct 159 29 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line McGarvey +2. 9.4% split their ticket.
    +78
  6. 06
    Precinct 145 46 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line McGarvey +10. 11.7% split their ticket.
    +67

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    11,236 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGarvey today.
    +11,236
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,723 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +258
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.
    +123

Plus a national shift of 22.1 points of margin (57,631 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGarvey.
  2. In Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.1 points toward Rodriguez's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    580 precincts, R² 0.989, 111 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,489 to -27,053 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Rodriguez $15,672 cash on hand; McGarvey $1,813,760.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,318 households, 54,953 dials, about 2,880 live conversations: an estimated $6,809 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,809 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.