Kentucky · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Maria Rodriguez.

McGarvey starts 26.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,617 net votes toward Rodriguez, a 4.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 22.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Rodriguez the one standing if one comes.

69,249
net votes between Rodriguez and a win
37
days to election day. Early voting opens October 29.
26.5 pts
McGarvey lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
Odds with the plan<1%
Net votes to find69,249
WherePrecinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McGarvey +26.5. Maria Rodriguez needs 69,249 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
The number

130,498 votes.

That is half of the 260,995 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Rodriguez stands today, and what is missing:

95,376 Maria Rodriguez baseline
164,625 Morgan McGarvey baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Rodriguez wins in
<1%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
<1%
tieRodriguez loses by 105,476loses by 9,515
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Rodriguez short by 57,761.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
11K
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,236

Who. 11,236 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGarvey today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Rodriguez needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McGarvey.

Mobilize
258
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,723

Who. At least 3,723 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
123
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 352

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,617 net votes against a gap of 69,249. Still 57,632 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 22.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 7% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Adair CountyAllen CountyAnderson CountyBallard CountyBarren CountyBath CountyBell CountyBoone CountyBourbon CountyBoyd CountyBoyle CountyBracken CountyBreathitt CountyBreckinridge CountyBullitt CountyButler CountyCaldwell CountyCalloway CountyCampbell CountyCarlisle CountyCarroll CountyCarter CountyCasey CountyChristian CountyClark CountyClay CountyClinton CountyCrittenden CountyCumberland CountyDaviess CountyEdmonson CountyElliott CountyEstill CountyFayette CountyFleming CountyFloyd CountyFranklin CountyFulton CountyGallatin CountyGarrard CountyGrant CountyGraves CountyGrayson CountyGreen CountyGreenup CountyHancock CountyHardin CountyHarlan CountyHarrison CountyHart CountyHenderson CountyHenry CountyHickman CountyHopkins CountyJackson CountyJefferson County: 11,618 net votes in the planJessamine CountyJohnson CountyKenton CountyKnott CountyKnox CountyLarue CountyLaurel CountyLawrence CountyLee CountyLeslie CountyLetcher CountyLewis CountyLincoln CountyLivingston CountyLogan CountyLyon CountyMadison CountyMagoffin CountyMarion CountyMarshall CountyMartin CountyMason CountyMcCracken CountyMcCreary CountyMcLean CountyMeade CountyMenifee CountyMercer CountyMetcalfe CountyMonroe CountyMontgomery CountyMorgan CountyMuhlenberg CountyNelson CountyNicholas CountyOhio CountyOldham CountyOwen CountyOwsley CountyPendleton CountyPerry CountyPike CountyPowell CountyPulaski CountyRobertson CountyRockcastle CountyRowan CountyRussell CountyScott CountyShelby CountySimpson CountySpencer CountyTaylor CountyTodd CountyTrigg CountyTrimble CountyUnion CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWayne CountyWebster CountyWhitley CountyWolfe CountyWoodford CountyJefferson
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line Rodriguez +2. 9.9% split their ticket.
    +98
  2. 02
    Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +15. 11.6% split their ticket.
    +89
  3. 03
    Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line Rodriguez +27. 13.4% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +83
  4. 04
    Precinct 191 29 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line Rodriguez +8. 11.5% split their ticket.
    +79
  5. 05
    Precinct 159 29 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +2. 9.4% split their ticket.
    +78
  6. 06
    Precinct 145 46 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +10. 11.7% split their ticket.
    +67
  7. 07
    Precinct 150 31 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +8. 12.9% split their ticket.
    +64
  8. 08
    Precinct 183 29 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line Rodriguez +1. 10.3% split their ticket.
    +64
  9. 09
    Precinct 134 29 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +7. 8.9% split their ticket.
    +63
  10. 10
    Precinct 154 28 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +15. 13.8% split their ticket.
    +61
  11. 11
    Precinct 172 29 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +7. 8.6% split their ticket.
    +61
  12. 12
    Precinct 172 48 District (Jefferson County)persuade
    Starting line McGarvey +5. 13.0% split their ticket.
    +58
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County) carries the most.

Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 98. It sits at Rodriguez +2 on our starting line, and 9.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County) is a turnout race.

Rodriguez's side leads Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 27 votes there.

Precinct 154 28 District (Jefferson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 154 28 District (Jefferson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, McGarvey had $1.81 million in cash on hand to Rodriguez's $16K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Rodriguez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80Rodriguez's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. House 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
580
Slope
0.950
R²
0.989
Residual SD
3.0 pts
Crossover precincts
111

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Rodriguez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 29.

  1. Now to October 5
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Rodriguez, with McGarvey, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 6 to 20
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,236 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

  3. October 21 to 28
    Bank the ballots

    No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 29 to November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,723 of them live where Rodriguez is favored. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. A postmark does not count.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 23.9 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 18.9 points; Beshear carried the 2023 governor's race by 42.8 points.

  1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGarvey.
  2. In Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.1 points toward Rodriguez's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

2,880 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 54,953 dials to 18,318 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K
households on the target list
55K
dials across three attempts
2,880
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,809 at our published rates: 18,318 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Maria Rodriguez (R)

Cuban-born Louisville trauma nurse and small business owner who came to the United States at 21 after an 11-year legal asylum process, earned her nursing degree while raising two children, and calls her U.S. citizenship one of the great honors of her life (campaign website).

Cash on hand $15,672 and $38,069 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Morgan McGarvey (D)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2023 and the only Democrat in Kentucky's congressional delegation. A Louisville native and attorney, he served in the Kentucky Senate (2012 to 2023), where he was elected minority leader in 2018, and holds degrees from the University of Missouri and the University of Kentucky College of Law.

Cash on hand $1,813,760 and $1,633,684 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 26, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: McGarvey +26.5. Maria Rodriguez needs 69,249 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

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Questions

Can Maria Rodriguez win Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,617 net votes; the gap is 69,249. The rest would take a 22.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Maria Rodriguez needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 191 29 District (Jefferson County), Precinct 159 29 District (Jefferson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Maria Rodriguez need to persuade?

About 5,618 voters who lean Morgan McGarvey today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,236 persuadable voters leaning Morgan McGarvey.

When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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