Upset Brief · KY-04 · Melissa Strange (D) vs. Ed Gallrein (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
65,534
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 29
Where
  1. 01
    Park Hills (Kenton County)
    Starting line Strange +29. 6.5% split their ticket. About 1,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +134
  2. 02
    Covington #2 (Kenton County)
    Starting line Strange +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
  3. 03
    Grant County #2 (Grant County)
    Starting line Gallrein +51. 9.5% split their ticket.
    +119
  4. 04
    Grant County #1 (Grant County)
    Starting line Gallrein +53. 8.9% split their ticket.
    +119
  5. 05
    Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County)
    Starting line Strange +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 754 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111
  6. 06
    Newport G (Campbell County)
    Starting line Strange +17. 10.5% split their ticket. About 666 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +111

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gallrein today.
    +12,102
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,480 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Strange's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +653
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Strange's way.
    +695

Plus a national shift of 20.6 points of margin (52,085 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Strange wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gallrein.
  2. In Park Hills (Kenton County) and Covington #2 (Kenton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.6 points toward Strange's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    469 precincts, R² 0.982, 95 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -82,355 to -22,060 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Strange $11,145 cash on hand; Gallrein $179,309.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    23,233 households, 69,698 dials, about 3,652 live conversations: an estimated $8,057 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,057 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.