Kentucky · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Melissa Strange.

Q: Can Melissa Strange win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,450 net votes; the gap is 65,534. The rest would take a 20.6-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Melissa Strange needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Park Hills (Kenton County), Covington #2 (Kenton County), Grant County #2 (Grant County), Grant County #1 (Grant County), Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Melissa Strange need to persuade?

About 6,051 voters who lean Ed Gallrein today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,102 persuadable voters leaning Ed Gallrein.

Q: When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Gallrein starts 25.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 13,450 net votes toward Strange, a 5.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Strange the one standing if one comes.

65,534

net votes between Strange and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 29.

25.9 pts

Gallrein lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find65,534

WherePark Hills (Kenton County), Covington #2 (Kenton County), Grant County #2 (Grant County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Gallrein +25.9. Melissa Strange needs 65,534 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

126,720 votes.

That is half of the 253,438 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Strange stands today, and what is missing:

91,360 Melissa Strange baseline

156,894 Ed Gallrein baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Strange wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Strange short by 52,274.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

12K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,102

Who. 12,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gallrein today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Strange needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Gallrein.

Mobilize

653

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,480

Who. At least 7,480 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Strange's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

695

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,987

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Strange's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,450 net votes against a gap of 65,534. Still 52,084 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 9% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Park Hills (Kenton County)mobilize
Starting line Strange +29. 6.5% split their ticket. About 1,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+134
02
Covington #2 (Kenton County)mobilize
Starting line Strange +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+128
03
Grant County #2 (Grant County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +51. 9.5% split their ticket.
+119
04
Grant County #1 (Grant County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +53. 8.9% split their ticket.
+119
05
Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County)mobilize
Starting line Strange +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 754 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
06
Newport G (Campbell County)persuade
Starting line Strange +17. 10.5% split their ticket. About 666 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+111
07
Grant County #3 (Grant County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +54. 7.9% split their ticket.
+100
08
Newport B (Campbell County)mobilize
Starting line Strange +31. 6.5% split their ticket. About 686 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
09
Precinct #1 (Lewis County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +64. 13.7% split their ticket.
+81
10
D2 (Nelson County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +32. 12.9% split their ticket.
+80
11
Independence #1 (Kenton County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +24. 8.4% split their ticket.
+79
12
Northeast Buckner (Oldham County)persuade
Starting line Gallrein +22. 12.2% split their ticket.
+79

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Park Hills (Kenton County) carries the most.

Park Hills (Kenton County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 134. It sits at Strange +29 on our starting line, and 6.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Covington #2 (Kenton County) is a turnout race.

Strange's side leads Covington #2 (Kenton County) by about 60 points on our starting line, and it cast about 488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 97 votes there.

Precinct #1 (Lewis County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct #1 (Lewis County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Gallrein had $179K in cash on hand to Strange's $11K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Strange's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 469
Slope: 1.040
R²: 0.982
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 95

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Strange's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 29.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Strange, with Gallrein, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,102 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 21 to 28
Bank the ballots
No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 29 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,480 of them live where Strange is favored. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. A postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 35.5 points; Cameron carried the 2023 governor's race by 4.6 points.

Strange wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gallrein.
In Park Hills (Kenton County) and Covington #2 (Kenton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 20.6 points toward Strange's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,652 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 69,698 dials to 23,233 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

70K

dials across three attempts

3,652

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,057 at our published rates: 23,233 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Melissa Strange (D)

Northern Kentucky native from Erlanger and Dixie Heights High School graduate with 27 years in food manufacturing and supply chain management, working as a supply chain director (campaign website; Spectrum News).

Cash on hand $11,145 and $94,464 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Ed Gallrein (R)

Farmer and former Navy SEAL officer who won the 4th District Republican nomination on 2026-05-19 with 54.9% and President Trump's endorsement (Wikipedia).

Cash on hand $179,309 and $3,567,324 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Jeremy Todd (L)

Libertarian salesperson whose campaign centers on faith, personal responsibility and hard work, values he credits to growing up the son of a truck driver and a billing clerk (Ballotpedia).

Cash on hand $5,921 and $22,393 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Peter Harmon Williams (Ind)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gallrein +25.9. Melissa Strange needs 65,534 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Melissa Strange win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,450 net votes; the gap is 65,534. The rest would take a 20.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Melissa Strange needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Park Hills (Kenton County), Covington #2 (Kenton County), Grant County #2 (Grant County), Grant County #1 (Grant County), Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Melissa Strange need to persuade?

About 6,051 voters who lean Ed Gallrein today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 12,102 persuadable voters leaning Ed Gallrein.

When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.