A long shot on the math: it takes a 41.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Rogers +52. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +173
2. 02
   Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Rogers +39. 13.1% split their ticket.
   +154
3. 03
   Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Rogers +48. 16.8% split their ticket.
   +152
4. 04
   Keavy (Laurel County)

   Starting line Rogers +54. 12.1% split their ticket.
   +111
5. 05
   Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Rogers +46. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +109
6. 06
   Pulaski Northwest 21 (Pulaski County)

   Starting line Rogers +64. 16.3% split their ticket.
   +102

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  14,424 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
  +14,424
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 196 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pillersdorf's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +16
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pillersdorf's way.
  +77

Plus a national shift of 41.5 points of margin (88,303 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Pillersdorf wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
2. The national environment moves about 41.5 points toward Pillersdorf's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  806 precincts, R² 0.873, 133 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -114,260 to -62,679 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Pillersdorf $91,275 cash on hand; Rogers $874,716.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  20,193 households, 60,580 dials, about 3,174 live conversations: an estimated $7,003 at published rates.