Upset Brief · KY-05 · Ned Pillersdorf (D) vs. Hal Rogers (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 41.6-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
102,834
net votes to find
Hal Rogers won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Rogers +52. 12.9% split their ticket.
    +173
  2. 02
    Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Rogers +39. 13.1% split their ticket.
    +154
  3. 03
    Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Rogers +48. 16.8% split their ticket.
    +152
  4. 04
    Keavy (Laurel County)
    Starting line Rogers +54. 12.1% split their ticket.
    +111
  5. 05
    Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Rogers +46. 12.9% split their ticket.
    +109
  6. 06
    Pulaski Northwest 21 (Pulaski County)
    Starting line Rogers +64. 16.3% split their ticket.
    +102

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    14,414 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
    +14,414
  • M
    Mobilize
    Few precincts give Pillersdorf's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
    +16
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
    +77

Plus a national shift of 41.6 points of margin (88,327 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Pillersdorf wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 41.6 points toward Pillersdorf's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    806 precincts, R² 0.873, 133 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -114,278 to -62,706 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Pillersdorf $91,275 cash on hand; Rogers $874,716.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,180 households, 60,539 dials, about 3,172 live conversations: an estimated $6,998 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,998 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.