Kentucky · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Ned Pillersdorf.

Rogers starts 48.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,517 net votes toward Pillersdorf, a 6.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 41.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Pillersdorf the one standing if one comes.

102,821

net votes between Pillersdorf and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 29.

48.4 pts

Rogers lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 41.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find102,821

WherePulaski South 51 (Pulaski County), Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County), Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Rogers +48.4. Ned Pillersdorf needs 102,821 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

106,282 votes.

That is half of the 212,563 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pillersdorf stands today, and what is missing:

54,463 Ned Pillersdorf baseline

157,284 Hal Rogers baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Pillersdorf wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Pillersdorf short by 88,320.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

14K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,424

Who. 14,424 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Pillersdorf needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Rogers.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 196

Who. At least 196 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pillersdorf's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 221

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pillersdorf's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 14,517 net votes against a gap of 102,821. Still 88,304 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 41.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 8% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +52. 12.9% split their ticket.
+173
02
Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +39. 13.1% split their ticket.
+154
03
Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +48. 16.8% split their ticket.
+152
04
Keavy (Laurel County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +54. 12.1% split their ticket.
+111
05
Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +46. 12.9% split their ticket.
+109
06
Pulaski Northwest 21 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +64. 16.3% split their ticket.
+102
07
Lower Farmers (Rowan County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +27. 13.1% split their ticket.
+75
08
Firebrook 14 (Pulaski County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +58. 11.3% split their ticket.
+70
09
Owingsville No. 3 (Bath County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +31. 17.7% split their ticket.
+69
10
Campground (Laurel County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +64. 13.2% split their ticket.
+66
11
North London (Laurel County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +64. 13.4% split their ticket.
+66
12
Prater Creek (Floyd County)persuade
Starting line Rogers +38. 25.4% split their ticket.
+59

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County) carries the most.

Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 173. It sits at Rogers +52 on our starting line, and 12.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Prater Creek (Floyd County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Prater Creek (Floyd County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 25.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Rogers had $875K in cash on hand to Pillersdorf's $91K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 14,517 net votes. The gap is 102,821. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 6.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pillersdorf's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 806
Slope: 0.720
R²: 0.873
Residual SD: 5.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 133

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pillersdorf's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 29.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pillersdorf, with Rogers, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 14,424 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 21 to 28
Bank the ballots
No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 29 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 196 of them live where Pillersdorf is favored. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. A postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 63.9 points; Cameron carried the 2023 governor's race by 16.5 points.

Pillersdorf wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
The national environment moves about 41.5 points toward Pillersdorf's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,174 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 60,580 dials to 20,193 households, before the last ballot is cast.

20K

households on the target list

61K

dials across three attempts

3,174

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,003 at our published rates: 20,193 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Ned Pillersdorf (D)

Prestonsburg attorney who has run an underdog and poverty law practice for 44 years and worked with several nonprofits; he is known for representing more than 4,000 eastern Kentucky Social Security disability claimants (campaign website; LEX18).

Cash on hand $91,275 and $182,281 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Hal Rogers (R)

Dean of the U.S. House, representing the 5th District since 1981 and a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee. A Barrier, Kentucky native with A.B. and law degrees from the University of Kentucky, he served in the Kentucky and North Carolina Army National Guard and as commonwealth's attorney for Pulaski and Rockcastle counties.

Cash on hand $874,716 and $849,758 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Gerardo Serrano (I)

Chicago-born farmer and small-business owner who has lived in the 5th District for more than 25 years and runs as an independent, constitution-focused voice for Eastern Kentucky (Ballotpedia).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mikel Wein (I)

Letcher County archaeologist living on land held by his family for more than a century; he holds degrees from UNC Chapel Hill and the CUNY Graduate Center and a Ph.D. from the University of St Andrews (Ballotpedia).

Cash on hand $1,514 and $2,200 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Billy Ray Wilson (Ind)

Veteran and activist who has run for this seat in several past cycles (Wikipedia; Ballotpedia).

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Rogers +48.4. Ned Pillersdorf needs 102,821 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Ned Pillersdorf win Kentucky's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,517 net votes; the gap is 102,821. The rest would take a 41.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Ned Pillersdorf needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County), Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County), Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County), Keavy (Laurel County), Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Ned Pillersdorf need to persuade?

About 7,212 voters who lean Hal Rogers today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,424 persuadable voters leaning Hal Rogers.

When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.