Upset Brief · KY-06 · Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 7.9-point national wave.

1%
odds today
14%
odds with the plan
39,360
net votes to find
Zach Dembo won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct #2 (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Alvarado +40. 15.0% split their ticket.
    +240
  2. 02
    Precinct #3 (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Alvarado +48. 14.4% split their ticket.
    +216
  3. 03
    Precinct #1 (Montgomery County)
    Starting line Alvarado +37. 14.4% split their ticket.
    +206
  4. 04
    Scott #3 (Scott County)
    Starting line Alvarado +34. 12.3% split their ticket.
    +196
  5. 05
    Scott #1 (Scott County)
    Starting line Alvarado +32. 12.3% split their ticket.
    +173
  6. 06
    Scott #10 (Scott County)
    Starting line Alvarado +22. 12.3% split their ticket.
    +168

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    16,440 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Alvarado today.
    +16,440
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 21,308 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dembo's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,177
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dembo's way.
    +583

Plus a national shift of 7.9 points of margin (20,160 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Dembo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Alvarado.
  2. The national environment moves about 7.9 points toward Dembo's side between now and November 3.
  3. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    510 precincts, R² 0.980, 83 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,520 to 10,459 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Dembo $491,275 cash on hand; Alvarado $398,018.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    38,540 households, 115,619 dials, about 6,058 live conversations: an estimated $11,928 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,928 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.