Kentucky · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Zach Dembo.

Alvarado starts 15.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 19,208 net votes toward Dembo, a 7.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 8.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Dembo the one standing if one comes.

39,405

net votes between Dembo and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 29.

15.5 pts

Alvarado lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.0-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan14%

Net votes to find39,405

WherePrecinct #2 (Montgomery County), Precinct #3 (Montgomery County), Precinct #1 (Montgomery County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Alvarado +15.5. Zach Dembo needs 39,405 net votes. Odds 1% today, 14% with the plan.

The number

127,016 votes.

That is half of the 254,031 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Dembo stands today, and what is missing:

105,644 Zach Dembo baseline

145,049 Ralph Alvarado baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. 14% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Dembo wins in

14%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Dembo short by 20,254.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

16K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,447

Who. 16,447 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Alvarado today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Dembo needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Alvarado.

Mobilize

2,177

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 21,308

Who. At least 21,308 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dembo's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

584

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,667

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dembo's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 19,208 net votes against a gap of 39,405. Still 20,197 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 10% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct #2 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +40. 15.0% split their ticket.
+240
02
Precinct #3 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +48. 14.4% split their ticket.
+216
03
Precinct #1 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +37. 14.4% split their ticket.
+206
04
Scott #3 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +34. 12.3% split their ticket.
+196
05
Scott #1 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +32. 12.3% split their ticket.
+173
06
Scott #10 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +22. 12.3% split their ticket.
+168
07
Scott #11 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +22. 12.3% split their ticket.
+150
08
Scott #4 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +28. 12.3% split their ticket.
+117
09
Alton (Anderson County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +47. 14.6% split their ticket.
+112
10
Scott #7 (Scott County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +23. 12.3% split their ticket.
+109
11
Duncan (Anderson County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +40. 15.7% split their ticket.
+109
12
Middle School (Woodford County)persuade
Starting line Alvarado +18. 13.0% split their ticket.
+109

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct #2 (Montgomery County) carries the most.

Precinct #2 (Montgomery County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 240. It sits at Alvarado +40 on our starting line, and 15.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Duncan (Anderson County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Duncan (Anderson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Dembo has the cash edge.

As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Dembo had $491K in cash on hand to Alvarado's $398K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 19,208 net votes. The gap is 39,405. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 7.6 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Dembo's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 510
Slope: 0.870
R²: 0.980
Residual SD: 4.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 83

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Dembo's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 29.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Dembo, with Alvarado, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 20
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 16,447 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 21 to 28
Bank the ballots
No-excuse early in-person voting runs October 29 through October 31. Mail absentee ballots, which require an excuse, must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 29 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 21,308 of them live where Dembo is favored. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on November 3. A postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time and photo ID is required. Kentucky has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 26.1 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.0 points; Beshear carried the 2023 governor's race by 19.1 points.

Dembo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Alvarado.
The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Dembo's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

6,060 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 115,648 dials to 38,549 households, before the last ballot is cast.

39K

households on the target list

116K

dials across three attempts

6,060

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,931 at our published rates: 38,549 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Zach Dembo (D)

Ninth-generation Kentuckian raised in Lexington who attended Stanford University, taught eighth grade English in the Mississippi Delta through Teach For America and earned his law degree from the University of Michigan before serving more than four years as a Navy JAG officer. He was a federal civil rights prosecutor, an Assistant U.S. Attorney in Lexington and policy adviser and legislative director to Gov. Andy Beshear (campaign website).

Cash on hand $491,275 and $1,463,855 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Ralph Alvarado (R)

Physician who served in the Kentucky Senate (2015 to 2023) as the first Hispanic member of the Kentucky General Assembly and then as Tennessee's 15th commissioner of health (2023 to 2025) (Wikipedia).

Cash on hand $398,018 and $1,521,813 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Pete Lynch (KP)

University of Kentucky political science faculty member with a bachelor's degree from Tufts University and a Ph.D. from UK (2022), running a campaign funded mainly by small donors (Ballotpedia).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Jay Bowman (I)

Michigan-born, Utah-raised entrepreneur who started his first business at 24, moved to Kentucky in the mid-1990s and built a small business there while raising his family (Ballotpedia).

Cash on hand $166 and $7,429 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Robert Quigley (Ind)

Lexington-based author of policy books including 'The Tyranny of Certainty' and 'The Divine Republic' (campaign website).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Alvarado +15.5. Zach Dembo needs 39,405 net votes. Odds 1% today, 14% with the plan.

Questions

Can Zach Dembo win Kentucky's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 19,208 net votes; the gap is 39,405. The rest would take a 8.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Zach Dembo needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct #2 (Montgomery County), Precinct #3 (Montgomery County), Precinct #1 (Montgomery County), Scott #3 (Scott County), Scott #1 (Scott County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Zach Dembo need to persuade?

About 8,224 voters who lean Ralph Alvarado today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 16,447 persuadable voters leaning Ralph Alvarado.

When does early voting start in Kentucky in 2026?

Kentucky offers no-excuse early in-person voting October 29 through October 31, 2026. The registration deadline is October 5. Mail absentee voting requires an excuse; requests are due by 11:59 p.m. Eastern on October 20 at GoVote.ky.gov, and ballots must be received by 6 p.m. local time on Election Day. Kentucky does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Kentucky State Board of Elections returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.