Upset Brief · LA-02 · Peter Williams (R) vs. Troy Carter (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.9-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
81,246
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 20
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 09 (St. James Parish)
    Starting line Williams +87. 2.2% split their ticket. About 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +141
  2. 02
    Precinct 184 (Jefferson Parish)
    Starting line Williams +50. 8.8% split their ticket. About 459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  3. 03
    Precinct 02 (St. James Parish)
    Starting line Williams +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 1,026 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  4. 04
    Ward 09 Precinct 44P (Orleans Parish)
    Starting line Carter +65. 26.1% split their ticket.
    +115
  5. 05
    Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish)
    Starting line Williams +88. 3.5% split their ticket. About 307 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +114
  6. 06
    Precinct 230 (Jefferson Parish)
    Starting line Williams +32. 16.1% split their ticket. About 366 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    19,697 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carter today.
    +19,697
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 20,129 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,772
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.
    +526

Plus a national shift of 27.9 points of margin (58,251 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carter.
  2. In Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) and Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 27.9 points toward Williams's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    619 precincts, R² 0.981, 91 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -84,112 to -31,431 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 18
    Williams no FEC totals reported; Carter $382,786.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    42,108 households, 126,324 dials, about 6,619 live conversations: an estimated $12,510 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $12,510 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Louisiana races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Louisiana Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.