The Political Group · Louisiana 2026 · as of September 26, 2026
Where a dollar moves a Louisiana race.
The November 3, 2026 election is over; each race now shows its result beside the plan, which stays up as the record. 2 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.
| Race | Odds: today → with the plan | Lift | Net votes | Call program | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana U.S. Senate Jamie Davis vs. Julia Letlow | 15% → 52% | +37 pts | 71,358 | $31,877 115,959 households | Julia Letlow won | Brief › |
| LA-02 Peter Williams vs. Troy Carter | 0% → <1% | +0 pts | 81,246 | $12,510 42,108 households | Troy Carter won | Brief › |
Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.
Upset Brief · Louisiana U.S. Senate · Jamie Davis (D) vs. Julia Letlow (R)
Davis can win. The plan uses 43 percent of what history allows.
Odds today15%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find71,358
Call program$31,877
Where
- Orleans Parish +26,029Starting line Davis +79. 16,289 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 47,463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- East Baton Rouge Parish +19,059Starting line Davis +24. 18,331 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 53,668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Jefferson Parish +6,718Starting line Letlow +1. 11,725 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 58,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Lafayette Parish +3,796Starting line Letlow +16. 7,759 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 34,511 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Ouachita Parish +2,402Starting line Letlow +13. 3,574 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 20,896 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
The top 12 parishes carry 88% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +54,648126,978 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Letlow, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
- Mobilize +17,854At least 193,147 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Davis's side wins at least 55 percent.
- Consolidate +2,425Voters who went third party in recent races, in the parishes that lean Davis's way.
What has to be true
- Davis wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Letlow.
- In the precincts Davis's side carries in Orleans Parish and East Baton Rouge Parish, 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 43 percent of what recent Louisiana results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression3,863 precincts, slope 0.956, R² 0.983, 476 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -116,506 to 125,434
- Cash on hand, June 30Davis $479,104 · Letlow $1,427,072
- Call program115,959 households, 347,877 dials, about 18,229 live conversations and 6,216 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · LA-02 · Peter Williams (R) vs. Troy Carter (D) · incumbent
A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.9-point national wave.
Odds today0%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find81,246
Call program$12,510
Where
- Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) +141Starting line Williams +87. 2.2% split their ticket. About 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- Precinct 184 (Jefferson Parish) +119Starting line Williams +50. 8.8% split their ticket. About 459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- Precinct 02 (St. James Parish) +119Starting line Williams +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 1,026 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- Ward 09 Precinct 44P (Orleans Parish) +115Starting line Carter +65. 26.1% split their ticket.
- Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish) +114Starting line Williams +88. 3.5% split their ticket. About 307 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +19,69719,697 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carter today.
- Mobilize +2,772At least 20,129 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
- Consolidate +526Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.
Plus a 27.9-point national shift (58,251 votes) that no campaign controls.
What has to be true
- Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carter.
- In Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) and Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 27.9 points toward Williams's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression619 precincts, slope 0.952, R² 0.981, 91 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -84,112 to -31,431
- Cash on hand, July 18Williams n/a · Carter $382,786
- Call program42,108 households, 126,324 dials, about 6,619 live conversations and 2,257 voter IDs, at $0.2971 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Louisiana Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.