Louisiana · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Peter Williams.

Carter starts 38.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 22,995 net votes toward Williams, a 11.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 27.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Williams the one standing if one comes.

81,246
net votes between Williams and a win
37
days to election day. Early voting opens October 20.
38.9 pts
Carter lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%
Odds with the plan<1%
Net votes to find81,246
WherePrecinct 09 (St. James Parish), Precinct 184 (Jefferson Parish), Precinct 02 (St. James Parish)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Carter +39.0. Peter Williams needs 81,292 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
The number

104,329 votes.

That is half of the 208,657 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Williams stands today, and what is missing:

61,177 Peter Williams baseline
142,423 Troy Carter baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 through 2024 results in this district (President in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022, and the 2023 statewide offices by party totals). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Williams wins in
<1%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
0%
tieWilliams loses by 98,341loses by 15,926
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Williams short by 58,334.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
20K
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,697

Who. 19,697 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carter today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Williams needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Carter.

Mobilize
2,772
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 20,129

Who. At least 20,129 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
526
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,502

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 22,995 net votes against a gap of 81,246. Still 58,251 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 27.9 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Acadia ParishAllen ParishAscension Parish: 325 net votes in the planAssumption ParishAvoyelles ParishBeauregard ParishBienville ParishBossier ParishCaddo ParishCalcasieu ParishCaldwell ParishCameron ParishCatahoula ParishClaiborne ParishConcordia ParishDe Soto ParishEast Baton Rouge Parish: 4,020 net votes in the planEast Carroll ParishEast Feliciana ParishEvangeline ParishFranklin ParishGrant ParishIberia ParishIberville Parish: 489 net votes in the planJackson ParishJefferson Parish: 4,981 net votes in the planJefferson Davis ParishLaSalle ParishLafayette ParishLafourche ParishLincoln ParishLivingston ParishMadison ParishMorehouse ParishNatchitoches ParishOrleans Parish: 10,033 net votes in the planOuachita ParishPlaquemines ParishPointe Coupee ParishRapides ParishRed River ParishRichland ParishSabine ParishSt. Bernard Parish: 668 net votes in the planSt. Charles Parish: 1,047 net votes in the planSt. Helena ParishSt. James Parish: 728 net votes in the planSt. John the Baptist Parish: 434 net votes in the planSt. Landry ParishSt. Martin ParishSt. Mary ParishSt. Tammany ParishTangipahoa ParishTensas ParishTerrebonne ParishUnion ParishVermilion ParishVernon ParishWashington ParishWebster ParishWest Baton Rouge Parish: 270 net votes in the planWest Carroll ParishWest Feliciana ParishWinn ParishEast Baton Rouge ParishJefferson ParishOrleans ParishSt. Charles ParishSt. James Parish
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Precinct 09 (St. James Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +87. 2.2% split their ticket. About 431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +141
  2. 02
    Precinct 184 (Jefferson Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +50. 8.8% split their ticket. About 459 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  3. 03
    Precinct 02 (St. James Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 1,026 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  4. 04
    Ward 09 Precinct 44P (Orleans Parish)persuade
    Starting line Carter +65. 26.1% split their ticket.
    +115
  5. 05
    Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +88. 3.5% split their ticket. About 307 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +114
  6. 06
    Precinct 230 (Jefferson Parish)persuade
    Starting line Williams +32. 16.1% split their ticket. About 366 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  7. 07
    Ward 15 Precinct 18F (Orleans Parish)persuade
    Starting line Carter +46. 27.6% split their ticket.
    +103
  8. 08
    Precinct 22 (Iberville Parish)persuade
    Starting line Williams +28. 8.5% split their ticket. About 391 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +95
  9. 09
    Precinct 32 (St. Bernard Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +47. 4.6% split their ticket. About 443 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +92
  10. 10
    Precinct 217 (Jefferson Parish)persuade
    Starting line Carter +14. 17.8% split their ticket.
    +92
  11. 11
    Precinct 194B (Jefferson Parish)persuade
    Starting line Williams +24. 13.2% split their ticket. About 506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +89
  12. 12
    Precinct 189 (Jefferson Parish)mobilize
    Starting line Williams +34. 11.7% split their ticket. About 437 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +89
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) carries the most.

Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 141. It sits at Williams +87 on our starting line, and 2.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish) is a turnout race.

Williams's side leads Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish) by about 88 points on our starting line, and it cast about 307 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 93 votes there.

Ward 15 Precinct 18F (Orleans Parish) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ward 15 Precinct 18F (Orleans Parish) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 27.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 22,995 net votes. The gap is 81,246. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 11.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Williams's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80+100+100Williams's side, margin (points) margin (points)
Precincts
619
Slope
0.952
R²
0.981
Residual SD
7.3 pts
Crossover precincts
91

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Williams's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 20.

  1. Now to October 5
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Williams, with Carter, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 6 to 19
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 19,697 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

  3. October 20 to 27
    Bank the ballots

    Early voting runs October 20 through October 27 (not Sunday, October 25). Mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar by 4:30 p.m. on November 2; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 28 to November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 20,129 of them live where Williams is favored. Mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar of voters by 4:30 p.m. on November 2; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 4:30 p.m. on October 30.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Louisiana has no same-day registration. In the U.S. House races, if no candidate wins a majority on November 3, the top two meet in a December 12 runoff; the Senate race is decided on November 3. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 47.3 points; the Democratic candidates carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 45.1 points; the Democratic candidates carried the 2023 governor's primary by 31.9 points.

  1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carter.
  2. In Precinct 09 (St. James Parish) and Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 27.9 points toward Williams's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

6,619 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 126,324 dials to 42,108 households, before the last ballot is cast.

42K
households on the target list
126K
dials across three attempts
6,619
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $12,510 at our published rates: 42,108 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Peter Williams (R)

Lettsworth resident in Pointe Coupee Parish and a 1980 graduate of the University of Southwestern Louisiana (now UL Lafayette) who taught in public schools and worked in recreation and parks before founding Resource One Nursery, the family tree farm and specialty crop business he has run since 1999.

Favorite · incumbent

Troy Carter (D)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2021, after serving in the Louisiana State Senate, the Louisiana House and on the New Orleans City Council.

Cash on hand $382,786 and $1,412,697 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 18, 2026.

Also on the ballot

Lisa Ballay (L)

New Orleans digital creator running on the Libertarian line (Louisiana Illuminator via Wikipedia).

Also on the ballot

Renada "Honey" Collins (NP)

Also on the ballot

Walter "Rocky" Beach (NP)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 26, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: Carter +39.0. Peter Williams needs 81,292 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Share this plan. Running this campaign, or backing it? This page is yours to share with your team and supporters.
Share

Questions

Can Peter Williams win Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 22,995 net votes; the gap is 81,246. The rest would take a 27.9-point national shift.

Where are the votes Peter Williams needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 09 (St. James Parish), Precinct 184 (Jefferson Parish), Precinct 02 (St. James Parish), Ward 09 Precinct 44P (Orleans Parish), Ward 04 Precinct 2 (St. Charles Parish). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Peter Williams need to persuade?

About 9,848 voters who lean Troy Carter today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 19,697 persuadable voters leaning Troy Carter.

When does early voting start in Louisiana in 2026?

Early voting in Louisiana runs October 20 through October 27, 2026 (not Sunday, October 25), 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Registration closes October 5 in person or by mail and October 13 online. Mail ballot requests are due by 4:30 p.m. on October 30, and mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar by 4:30 p.m. on November 2. Louisiana does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Louisiana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Louisiana Secretary of State returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

Race coverage

More Louisiana underdogs

Louisiana U.S. Senate
How Jamie Davis wins
71,414 net votes to find