Upset Brief · Louisiana U.S. Senate · Jamie Davis (D) vs. Julia Letlow (R)

Davis can win. The plan uses 43 percent of what history allows.

15%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
71,358
net votes to find
Julia Letlow won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Orleans Parish
    Starting line Davis +79. 16,289 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 47,463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +26,029
  2. 02
    East Baton Rouge Parish
    Starting line Davis +24. 18,331 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 53,668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +19,059
  3. 03
    Jefferson Parish
    Starting line Letlow +1. 11,725 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 58,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,718
  4. 04
    Lafayette Parish
    Starting line Letlow +16. 7,759 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 34,511 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,796
  5. 05
    Ouachita Parish
    Starting line Letlow +13. 3,574 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 20,896 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,402
  6. 06
    St. Landry Parish
    Starting line even. 2,909 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 9,191 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,956

The top 12 parishes carry 88% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    126,978 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Letlow, plus the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +54,648
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 193,147 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Davis's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +17,854
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the parishes that lean Davis's way.
    +2,425
What has to be true
  1. Davis wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Letlow.
  2. In the precincts Davis's side carries in Orleans Parish and East Baton Rouge Parish, 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 43 percent of what recent Louisiana results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    3,863 precincts, R² 0.983, 476 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -116,506 to 125,434 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Davis $479,104 cash on hand; Letlow $1,427,072.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    115,959 households, 347,877 dials, about 18,229 live conversations: an estimated $31,877 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $31,877 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Louisiana races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Louisiana Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.