How Jamie Davis wins.
Letlow starts 5.1 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Davis needs 71,414 net votes, and the math closes using 43 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Orleans Parish, East Baton Rouge Parish and Jefferson Parish.
Davis can win. The math closes using 43 percent of what history allows.
704,471 votes.
That is half of the 1,408,940 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Davis stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Letlow +4.7 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each parish's pattern in the 2022 through 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
15% today. 52% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 127,078 leaning Letlow today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Davis needs to win 22 percent of the ones now leaning Letlow.
Who. At least 192,715 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in parishes where Davis's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the parishes that lean Davis's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 74,984 net votes against a gap of 71,414. That is a win.
12 parishes carry 87% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+26,030Orleans ParishpersuadeStarting line Davis +79. 16,289 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 47,463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 02+19,059East Baton Rouge ParishpersuadeStarting line Davis +24. 18,331 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 53,668 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 03+6,737Jefferson ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +1. 11,725 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 58,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 04+3,796Lafayette ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +16. 7,759 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 34,508 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 05+2,402Ouachita ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +13. 3,574 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 20,896 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 06+1,956St. Landry ParishpersuadeStarting line even. 2,909 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 9,191 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 07+1,392Calcasieu ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +19. 4,501 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 27,155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 08+1,085St. John The Baptist ParishpersuadeStarting line Davis +44. 1,192 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 7,141 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 09+965Ascension ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +17. 3,369 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 22,707 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 10+863St. Tammany ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +28. 7,026 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 46,048 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 11+650Iberia ParishpersuadeStarting line Letlow +20. 1,707 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 9,074 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 12+620Rapides ParishmobilizeStarting line Letlow +18. 2,835 persuadable voters leaning Letlow; 13,985 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
The hidden path.
Orleans Parish holds the biggest share of the plan.
Orleans Parish gives this plan more net votes than any other parish: 26,030. It sits at Davis +79 on our starting line.
East Baton Rouge Parish is a turnout race.
In the precincts Davis's side carries in East Baton Rouge Parish, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 3,586 votes in this plan.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Letlow had $1.43 million in cash on hand to Davis's $479K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Davis's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 3,863
- Slope
- 0.956
- R²
- 0.983
- Residual SD
- 7.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 476
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Davis's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 20.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these parishes. Every conversation tags the voter: with Davis, with Letlow, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 19Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 54,722 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 20 to 27Bank the ballots
Early voting runs October 20 through October 27 (not Sunday, October 25). Mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar by 4:30 p.m. on November 2; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 192,715 of them live where Davis is favored. Mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar of voters by 4:30 p.m. on November 2; a postmark does not count. Requests are due by 4:30 p.m. on October 30.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Louisiana has no same-day registration. In the U.S. House races, if no candidate wins a majority on November 3, the top two meet in a December 12 runoff; the Senate race is decided on November 3. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 22.0 points; the Republican candidates carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 28.6 points; the Republican candidates carried the 2023 governor's primary by 37.0 points.
- Davis wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Letlow.
- In the precincts Davis's side carries in Orleans Parish and East Baton Rouge Parish, 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 43 percent of what recent Louisiana results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
18,239 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 348,082 dials to 116,027 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $31,896 at our published rates: 116,027 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Jamie Davis (D)
Third-generation farmer who owns and operates Davis Farms in the Louisiana Delta and lives in Ferriday; elected to the Tensas Parish Police Jury (the Louisiana equivalent of a county commission) in 2015, he served as its vice president, and he won the Democratic nomination with 79.9% in the June 27 runoff with the endorsement of the Louisiana Democratic Party.
Cash on hand $479,104 and $1,983,548 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Julia Letlow (R)
U.S. representative for Louisiana's 5th District since 2021 and the first Republican woman elected to Congress from Louisiana; a Monroe native, she holds bachelor's and master's degrees in speech communication from the University of Louisiana at Monroe and a doctorate in communication from the University of South Florida, and previously led external affairs and strategic communications at ULM.
Cash on hand $1,427,072 and $6,210,122 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Letlow +5.0. Jamie Davis needs 71,136 net votes. Odds 15% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Can Jamie Davis win the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Jamie Davis needs 71,414 net votes, and recent Louisiana results show about 174,131 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 43 percent of that.
Where are the votes Jamie Davis needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Orleans Parish, East Baton Rouge Parish, Jefferson Parish, Lafayette Parish, Ouachita Parish. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 through 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Jamie Davis need to persuade?
About 27,361 voters who lean Julia Letlow today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 22 percent of the 127,078 persuadable voters leaning Julia Letlow.
When does early voting start in Louisiana in 2026?
Early voting in Louisiana runs October 20 through October 27, 2026 (not Sunday, October 25), 8:30 a.m. to 6 p.m. Registration closes October 5 in person or by mail and October 13 online. Mail ballot requests are due by 4:30 p.m. on October 30, and mailed ballots must be received by the parish registrar by 4:30 p.m. on November 2. Louisiana does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Louisiana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Louisiana Secretary of State returns for 2022 through 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Louisiana Secretary of State, election results
- Ballotpedia, Redistricting in Louisiana (Act 2 of the 2026 Regular Session)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Hart Research Associates (D) (2026-09-17 to 2026-09-19)
- Poll: Public Policy Polling (D) (2026-07-21 to 2026-07-22)