Upset Brief · MD-01 · Dan Schwartz (D) vs. Andy Harris (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
17%
odds with the plan
41,142
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 003-007 (Harford County)
    Starting line Harris +20. 10.1% split their ticket.
    +586
  2. 02
    Precinct 003-006 (Harford County)
    Starting line Harris +22. 11.0% split their ticket.
    +414
  3. 03
    Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County)
    Starting line Schwartz +20. 13.2% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +383
  4. 04
    Precinct 001-021 (Harford County)
    Starting line Schwartz +12. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +352
  5. 05
    Precinct 004-002 (Queen Anne's County)
    Starting line Harris +14. 10.6% split their ticket.
    +348
  6. 06
    Precinct 003-002 (Queen Anne's County)
    Starting line Harris +20. 8.6% split their ticket.
    +338

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 22,709 leaning Harris today.
    +22,709
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 15,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Schwartz's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,471
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Schwartz's way.
    +1,350

Plus a national shift of 5.3 points of margin (15,611 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Schwartz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harris.
  2. In Precinct 002-007 (Harford County) and Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Schwartz's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    298 precincts, R² 0.987, 50 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -42,546 to 11,781 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Schwartz $72,575 cash on hand; Harris $1,853,603.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    44,490 households, 133,469 dials, about 6,994 live conversations: an estimated $13,218 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,218 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.