Maryland · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Dan Schwartz.

Q: Can Dan Schwartz win Maryland's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 25,530 net votes; the gap is 41,142. The rest would take a 5.3-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Dan Schwartz needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 003-007 (Harford County), Precinct 003-006 (Harford County), Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County), Precinct 001-021 (Harford County), Precinct 004-002 (Queen Anne's County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Dan Schwartz need to persuade?

About 11,354 voters who lean Andy Harris today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 22,709 persuadable voters leaning Andy Harris.

Q: When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Harris starts 14.0 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 25,530 net votes toward Schwartz, a 8.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 5.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Schwartz the one standing if one comes.

41,142

net votes between Schwartz and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

14.0 pts

Harris lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan17%

Net votes to find41,142

WherePrecinct 003-007 (Harford County), Precinct 003-006 (Harford County), Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Harris +14.0. Dan Schwartz needs 41,142 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 17% with the plan.

The number

147,162 votes.

That is half of the 294,322 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Schwartz stands today, and what is missing:

122,131 Dan Schwartz baseline

163,273 Andy Harris baseline

Starting line: Harris +14.0 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. 17% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Schwartz wins in

17%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Schwartz short by 15,890.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

23K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 22,709

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 22,709 leaning Harris today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Schwartz needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harris.

Mobilize

1,471

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 15,201

Who. At least 15,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Schwartz's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,350

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,858

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Schwartz's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 25,530 net votes against a gap of 41,142. Still 15,612 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 5.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 003-007 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Harris +20. 10.1% split their ticket.
+586
02
Precinct 003-006 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Harris +22. 11.0% split their ticket.
+414
03
Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County)persuade
Starting line Schwartz +20. 13.2% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+383
04
Precinct 001-021 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Schwartz +12. 6.4% split their ticket.
+352
05
Precinct 004-002 (Queen Anne's County)persuade
Starting line Harris +14. 10.6% split their ticket.
+348
06
Precinct 003-002 (Queen Anne's County)persuade
Starting line Harris +20. 8.6% split their ticket.
+338
07
Precinct 001-002 (Talbot County)persuade
Starting line Schwartz +15. 10.2% split their ticket. About 974 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+330
08
Precinct 007-001 (Worcester County)persuade
Starting line Harris +25. 10.6% split their ticket.
+327
09
Precinct 002-007 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Schwartz +35. 6.8% split their ticket. About 1,052 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+294
10
Precinct 001-015 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Schwartz +5. 7.3% split their ticket.
+289
11
Precinct 003-015 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line Harris +11. 13.2% split their ticket.
+276
12
Precinct 006-004 (Harford County)persuade
Starting line even. 11.1% split their ticket.
+274

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 003-007 (Harford County) carries the most.

Precinct 003-007 (Harford County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 586. It sits at Harris +20 on our starting line, and 10.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 002-007 (Harford County) is a turnout race.

Schwartz's side leads Precinct 002-007 (Harford County) by about 35 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,052 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 117 votes there.

Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Harris had $1.85 million in cash on hand to Schwartz's $73K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Schwartz's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 298
Slope: 0.958
R²: 0.987
Residual SD: 2.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 50

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Schwartz's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Schwartz, with Harris, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 22,709 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 15,201 of them live where Schwartz is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 22.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.8 points; Hogan carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 33.5 points.

Schwartz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harris.
In Precinct 002-007 (Harford County) and Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Schwartz's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

6,994 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 133,469 dials to 44,490 households, before the last ballot is cast.

44K

households on the target list

133K

dials across three attempts

6,994

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,218 at our published rates: 44,490 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Dan Schwartz (D)

A Talbot County consumer advocate who has spent more than 14 years working with state and federal regulators to protect consumers from financial misconduct, including as a senior director at the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. He earned a bachelor's degree from George Washington University in 2010.

Cash on hand $72,575 and $695,170 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Andy Harris (R)

U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2011 and chair of the House Freedom Caucus since 2024. A physician, he worked as an anesthesiologist at Johns Hopkins, commanded the Johns Hopkins Naval Reserve Medical Unit from 1989 to 1992, and served in the Maryland Senate from 1999 until his election to Congress in 2010.

Cash on hand $1,853,603 and $2,319,668 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Edward Shlikas (U)

A Jarrettsville (Harford County) resident running as a certified unaffiliated write-in candidate.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harris +14.0. Dan Schwartz needs 41,142 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 17% with the plan.

Questions

Can Dan Schwartz win Maryland's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 25,530 net votes; the gap is 41,142. The rest would take a 5.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Dan Schwartz needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 003-007 (Harford County), Precinct 003-006 (Harford County), Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County), Precinct 001-021 (Harford County), Precinct 004-002 (Queen Anne's County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Dan Schwartz need to persuade?

About 11,354 voters who lean Andy Harris today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 22,709 persuadable voters leaning Andy Harris.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.