Upset Brief · MD-02 · Dave Wallace (R) vs. Johnny Olszewski (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
4%
odds with the plan
53,509
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Wallace +31. 10.5% split their ticket. About 1,393 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +333
  2. 02
    Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Wallace +6. 14.4% split their ticket.
    +324
  3. 03
    Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County)
    Starting line Olszewski +11. 28.0% split their ticket.
    +316
  4. 04
    Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Wallace +34. 8.8% split their ticket. About 1,289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +314
  5. 05
    Precinct 006-002 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Wallace +38. 8.6% split their ticket. About 1,170 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +286
  6. 06
    Precinct 004-002 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Wallace +24. 10.2% split their ticket. About 1,171 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +275

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    14,156 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Olszewski today.
    +14,156
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 24,923 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wallace's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,564
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wallace's way.
    +912

Plus a national shift of 13.1 points of margin (35,876 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Wallace wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Olszewski.
  2. In Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.1 points toward Wallace's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    229 precincts, R² 0.959, 13 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -68,311 to -2,923 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Wallace $3,073 cash on hand; Olszewski $614,275.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    38,531 households, 115,593 dials, about 6,057 live conversations: an estimated $11,925 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,925 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.