Maryland · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Dave Wallace.

Q: Can Dave Wallace win Maryland's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 17,632 net votes; the gap is 53,509. The rest would take a 13.1-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Dave Wallace needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County), Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County), Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 006-002 (Carroll County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Dave Wallace need to persuade?

About 7,078 voters who lean Johnny Olszewski today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,156 persuadable voters leaning Johnny Olszewski.

Q: When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Olszewski starts 19.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 17,632 net votes toward Wallace, a 6.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 13.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Wallace the one standing if one comes.

53,509

net votes between Wallace and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

19.5 pts

Olszewski lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan4%

Net votes to find53,509

WherePrecinct 008-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County), Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Olszewski +19.5. Dave Wallace needs 53,509 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 4% with the plan.

The number

137,162 votes.

That is half of the 274,323 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Wallace stands today, and what is missing:

107,252 Dave Wallace baseline

160,761 Johnny Olszewski baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. 4% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Wallace wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Wallace short by 35,790.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

14K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,156

Who. 14,156 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Olszewski today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Wallace needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Olszewski.

Mobilize

2,564

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 24,923

Who. At least 24,923 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wallace's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

912

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,607

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wallace's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 17,632 net votes against a gap of 53,509. Still 35,877 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 13.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +31. 10.5% split their ticket. About 1,393 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+333
02
Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +6. 14.4% split their ticket.
+324
03
Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County)persuade
Starting line Olszewski +11. 28.0% split their ticket.
+316
04
Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +34. 8.8% split their ticket. About 1,289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+314
05
Precinct 006-002 (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Wallace +38. 8.6% split their ticket. About 1,170 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+286
06
Precinct 004-002 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +24. 10.2% split their ticket. About 1,171 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+275
07
Precinct 005-006 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +6. 12.8% split their ticket.
+234
08
Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Wallace +34. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,739 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+229
09
Precinct 005-004 (Carroll County)persuade
Starting line Wallace +10. 12.0% split their ticket.
+218
10
Precinct 006-003 (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Wallace +49. 6.7% split their ticket. About 782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+210
11
Precinct 008-002 (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Wallace +40. 8.7% split their ticket. About 775 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+204
12
Precinct 003-001 (Carroll County)mobilize
Starting line Wallace +44. 5.7% split their ticket. About 888 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+201

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County) carries the most.

Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 333. It sits at Wallace +31 on our starting line, and 10.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County) is a turnout race.

Wallace's side leads Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,739 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 194 votes there.

Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 28.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Olszewski had $614K in cash on hand to Wallace's $3,073. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Wallace's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 229
Slope: 0.970
R²: 0.959
Residual SD: 7.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 13

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Wallace's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Wallace, with Olszewski, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 14,156 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 24,923 of them live where Wallace is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 18.6 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 18.3 points; Hogan carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.5 points.

Wallace wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Olszewski.
In Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 13.1 points toward Wallace's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

6,057 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 115,593 dials to 38,531 households, before the last ballot is cast.

39K

households on the target list

116K

dials across three attempts

6,057

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,925 at our published rates: 38,531 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Dave Wallace (R)

A Carroll County small-business owner who has spent more than four decades in business, including as owner of Chesapeake Kitchen Wholesalers, after earning a biology degree from Salisbury University and working in immunological cancer research at the National Institutes of Health. He founded the civic group Restore America's Mission in 2008.

Cash on hand $3,073 and $20,194 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Johnny Olszewski (D)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2025 and Baltimore County executive from 2018 to 2025. He earlier served in the Maryland House of Delegates from 2006 to 2015 and as a student member of the Baltimore County Board of Education.

Cash on hand $614,275 and $1,040,390 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Olszewski +19.5. Dave Wallace needs 53,509 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 4% with the plan.

Questions

Can Dave Wallace win Maryland's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 17,632 net votes; the gap is 53,509. The rest would take a 13.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Dave Wallace needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County), Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County), Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 006-002 (Carroll County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Dave Wallace need to persuade?

About 7,078 voters who lean Johnny Olszewski today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,156 persuadable voters leaning Johnny Olszewski.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.