Upset Brief · MD-03 · Berney Flowers (R) vs. Sarah Elfreth (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
66,517
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Flowers +20. 12.2% split their ticket. About 1,993 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +419
  2. 02
    Precinct 005-010 (Howard County)
    Starting line Elfreth +35. 18.3% split their ticket.
    +370
  3. 03
    Precinct 005-001 (Howard County)
    Starting line Elfreth +19. 16.1% split their ticket.
    +324
  4. 04
    Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County)
    Starting line Flowers +29. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,204 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +307
  5. 05
    Precinct 003-005 (Howard County)
    Starting line Elfreth +20. 16.0% split their ticket.
    +292
  6. 06
    Precinct 005-006 (Howard County)
    Starting line Elfreth +39. 14.8% split their ticket.
    +282

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    18,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elfreth today.
    +18,175
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flowers's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,336
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flowers's way.
    +1,006

Plus a national shift of 15.5 points of margin (46,001 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Flowers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elfreth.
  2. In Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.5 points toward Flowers's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    213 precincts, R² 0.981, 42 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -81,402 to -10,037 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Flowers $2,016 cash on hand; Elfreth $335,826.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    38,211 households, 114,633 dials, about 6,007 live conversations: an estimated $11,826 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,826 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.