What it would take for Berney Flowers.
Elfreth starts 22.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 20,517 net votes toward Flowers, a 6.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 15.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Flowers the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.5-point national wave.
148,113 votes.
That is half of the 296,224 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Flowers stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 18,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elfreth today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Flowers needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Elfreth.
Who. At least 16,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flowers's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flowers's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 20,517 net votes against a gap of 66,517. Still 46,000 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 15.5 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 17% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+419Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County)persuadeStarting line Flowers +20. 12.2% split their ticket. About 1,993 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+370Precinct 005-010 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +35. 18.3% split their ticket.
- 03+324Precinct 005-001 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +19. 16.1% split their ticket.
- 04+307Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County)persuadeStarting line Flowers +29. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,204 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+292Precinct 003-005 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +20. 16.0% split their ticket.
- 06+282Precinct 005-006 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +39. 14.8% split their ticket.
- 07+268Precinct 001-004 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +31. 16.7% split their ticket.
- 08+261Precinct 003-002 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +9. 15.6% split their ticket.
- 09+260Precinct 006-019 (Anne Arundel County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +16. 13.1% split their ticket.
- 10+253Precinct 002-016 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +36. 16.4% split their ticket.
- 11+240Precinct 005-005 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +39. 14.7% split their ticket.
- 12+237Precinct 002-011 (Howard County)persuadeStarting line Elfreth +28. 17.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) carries the most.
Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 419. It sits at Flowers +20 on our starting line, and 12.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County) is a turnout race.
Flowers's side leads Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County) by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,204 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 113 votes there.
Precinct 005-010 (Howard County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 005-010 (Howard County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 18.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Elfreth had $336K in cash on hand to Flowers's $2,016. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Flowers's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 213
- Slope
- 0.977
- R²
- 0.981
- Residual SD
- 3.9 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 42
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Flowers's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 22.
- Now to October 13Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Flowers, with Elfreth, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 14 to 21Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 18,175 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 22 to 29Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,155 of them live where Flowers is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 21.4 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.5 points; Hogan carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 0.4 points.
- Flowers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elfreth.
- In Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 15.5 points toward Flowers's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
6,007 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 114,633 dials to 38,211 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,826 at our published rates: 38,211 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Berney Flowers (R)
A retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel who served nearly 21 years on active duty, including at the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, then returned to the Defense Department as a civil servant helping stand up U.S. Cyber Command. He holds degrees from UNC Pembroke and Golden Gate University and graduated from the Air War College.
Cash on hand $2,016 and $12,708 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Sarah Elfreth (D)
U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2025 and state senator for Annapolis-based District 30 from 2019 to 2025. A Towson University graduate with a master's degree in public policy from Johns Hopkins, she served as a student member of the University System of Maryland Board of Regents.
Cash on hand $335,826 and $1,141,516 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Elfreth +22.5. Berney Flowers needs 66,517 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 2% with the plan.
Questions
Can Berney Flowers win Maryland's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 20,517 net votes; the gap is 66,517. The rest would take a 15.5-point national shift.
Where are the votes Berney Flowers needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County), Precinct 005-010 (Howard County), Precinct 005-001 (Howard County), Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County), Precinct 003-005 (Howard County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Berney Flowers need to persuade?
About 9,088 voters who lean Sarah Elfreth today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 18,175 persuadable voters leaning Sarah Elfreth.
When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?
Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Maryland State Board of Elections, election results
- Maryland State Board of Elections, 2026 elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Maryland's 3rd congressional district
- Wikipedia: Sarah Elfreth
- Ballotpedia: Bernard Flowers
- Baltimore Sun: Rep. Sarah Elfreth launches reelection campaign in Maryland’s 3rd District