A long shot on the math: it takes a 75.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County)

   Starting line Ivey +44. 11.1% split their ticket.
   +106
2. 02
   Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Ivey +68. 7.5% split their ticket.
   +90
3. 03
   Precinct 005-019 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Ivey +46. 9.6% split their ticket.
   +83
4. 04
   Precinct 005-012 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Ivey +58. 8.2% split their ticket.
   +82
5. 05
   Precinct 010-013 (Prince George's County)

   Starting line Ivey +71. 5.9% split their ticket.
   +73
6. 06
   Precinct 005-018 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Ivey +34. 11.5% split their ticket.
   +52

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,611 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ivey today.
  +3,611
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts McDermott's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDermott's way.
  +90

Plus a national shift of 75.6 points of margin (124,243 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. McDermott wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ivey.
2. The national environment moves about 75.6 points toward McDermott's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  229 precincts, R² 0.975, 41 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -143,371 to -105,260 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  McDermott no FEC totals reported; Ivey $459,226.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  5,160 households, 15,479 dials, about 811 live conversations: an estimated $2,687 at published rates.