Maryland · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for George McDermott.

Ivey starts 77.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,701 net votes toward McDermott, a 2.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 75.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes McDermott the one standing if one comes.

127,943

net votes between McDermott and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

77.8 pts

Ivey lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 75.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find127,943

WherePrecinct 010-005 (Prince George's County), Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County), Precinct 005-019 (Montgomery County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Ivey +77.8. George McDermott needs 127,943 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

82,176 votes.

That is half of the 164,350 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where McDermott stands today, and what is missing:

17,068 George McDermott baseline

145,011 Glenn Ivey baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

McDermott wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: McDermott short by 124,273.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,611

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,611

Who. 3,611 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ivey today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. McDermott needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Ivey.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts McDermott's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 257

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDermott's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 3,701 net votes against a gap of 127,943. Still 124,242 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 75.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 21% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +44. 11.1% split their ticket.
+106
02
Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +68. 7.5% split their ticket.
+90
03
Precinct 005-019 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +46. 9.6% split their ticket.
+83
04
Precinct 005-012 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +58. 8.2% split their ticket.
+82
05
Precinct 010-013 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +71. 5.9% split their ticket.
+73
06
Precinct 005-018 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +34. 11.5% split their ticket.
+52
07
Precinct 010-006 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +75. 5.5% split their ticket.
+52
08
Precinct 021-007 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +55. 11.1% split their ticket.
+51
09
Precinct 021-006 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +70. 6.7% split their ticket.
+51
10
Precinct 010-012 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +70. 4.3% split their ticket.
+48
11
Precinct 001-005 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +46. 9.2% split their ticket.
+47
12
Precinct 016-003 (Prince George's County)persuade
Starting line Ivey +74. 4.0% split their ticket.
+47

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County) carries the most.

Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 106. It sits at Ivey +44 on our starting line, and 11.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 005-018 (Montgomery County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 005-018 (Montgomery County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 3,701 net votes. The gap is 127,943. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where McDermott's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 229
Slope: 0.978
R²: 0.975
Residual SD: 1.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 41

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: McDermott's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with McDermott, with Ivey, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,611 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where McDermott is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 77.2 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 73.2 points; Alsobrooks carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 64.9 points.

McDermott wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ivey.
The national environment moves about 75.6 points toward McDermott's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

811 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 15,479 dials to 5,160 households, before the last ballot is cast.

5,160

households on the target list

15K

dials across three attempts

811

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,687 at our published rates: 5,160 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

George McDermott (R)

A Prince George's County resident whose professional experience includes work as a victim rights advocate; he holds a trade school diploma.

Campaign site ›

Favorite · incumbent

Glenn Ivey (D)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2023 and twice-elected Prince George's County state's attorney (2002 to 2011). He previously chaired the Maryland Public Service Commission, served as an assistant U.S. attorney, and was chief counsel to Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle.

Cash on hand $459,226 and $674,407 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Sam Husseini (G)

Communications director of the Institute for Public Accuracy, a Washington-based nonprofit, and a journalist whose work has appeared in The Nation, The Washington Post, USA Today and Salon. He previously worked at Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting and the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee.

Campaign site ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Ivey +77.8. George McDermott needs 127,943 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can George McDermott win Maryland's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 3,701 net votes; the gap is 127,943. The rest would take a 75.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes George McDermott needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County), Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County), Precinct 005-019 (Montgomery County), Precinct 005-012 (Montgomery County), Precinct 010-013 (Prince George's County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does George McDermott need to persuade?

About 1,806 voters who lean Glenn Ivey today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,611 persuadable voters leaning Glenn Ivey.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.