Upset Brief · MD-05 · Chris Chaffee (R) vs. Adrian Boafo (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 29.2-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
92,875
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County)
    Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.0% split their ticket. About 4,303 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +652
  2. 02
    Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County)
    Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.1% split their ticket. About 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +565
  3. 03
    Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County)
    Starting line Chaffee +18. 9.2% split their ticket. About 1,702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +316
  4. 04
    Precinct 002-001 (St. Mary's County)
    Starting line Chaffee +23. 9.1% split their ticket. About 2,592 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +276
  5. 05
    Precinct 006-001 (St. Mary's County)
    Starting line Chaffee +34. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,991 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +272
  6. 06
    Precinct 007-015 (Anne Arundel County)
    Starting line Boafo +30. 14.0% split their ticket.
    +189

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,195 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boafo today.
    +10,195
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,420 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Chaffee's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,420
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chaffee's way.
    +428

Plus a national shift of 29.2 points of margin (79,833 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Chaffee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boafo.
  2. In Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) and Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 29.2 points toward Chaffee's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    224 precincts, R² 0.995, 29 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -112,450 to -47,587 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Chaffee no FEC totals reported; Boafo $91,867.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    33,832 households, 101,496 dials, about 5,318 live conversations: an estimated $10,891 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $10,891 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.