Maryland · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Chris Chaffee.

Q: Can Chris Chaffee win Maryland's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,043 net votes; the gap is 92,875. The rest would take a 29.2-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Chris Chaffee needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County), Precinct 002-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 006-001 (St. Mary's County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Chris Chaffee need to persuade?

About 5,098 voters who lean Adrian Boafo today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,195 persuadable voters leaning Adrian Boafo.

Q: When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Boafo starts 33.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 13,043 net votes toward Chaffee, a 4.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 29.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Chaffee the one standing if one comes.

92,875

net votes between Chaffee and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

33.9 pts

Boafo lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 29.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find92,875

WherePrecinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Boafo +33.9. Chris Chaffee needs 92,875 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

136,891 votes.

That is half of the 273,781 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Chaffee stands today, and what is missing:

88,727 Chris Chaffee baseline

181,602 Adrian Boafo baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Chaffee wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Chaffee short by 79,986.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,195

Who. 10,195 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boafo today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Chaffee needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Boafo.

Mobilize

2,420

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 27,420

Who. At least 27,420 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Chaffee's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

428

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,222

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chaffee's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,043 net votes against a gap of 92,875. Still 79,832 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 29.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County)mobilize
Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.0% split their ticket. About 4,303 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+652
02
Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County)mobilize
Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.1% split their ticket. About 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+565
03
Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County)persuade
Starting line Chaffee +18. 9.2% split their ticket. About 1,702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+316
04
Precinct 002-001 (St. Mary's County)mobilize
Starting line Chaffee +23. 9.1% split their ticket. About 2,592 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+276
05
Precinct 006-001 (St. Mary's County)mobilize
Starting line Chaffee +34. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,991 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+272
06
Precinct 007-015 (Anne Arundel County)persuade
Starting line Boafo +30. 14.0% split their ticket.
+189
07
Precinct 003-006 (Calvert County)persuade
Starting line Chaffee +20. 10.8% split their ticket. About 805 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+185
08
Precinct 003-002 (St. Mary's County)mobilize
Starting line Chaffee +17. 8.7% split their ticket. About 1,900 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+180
09
Precinct 007-014 (Anne Arundel County)persuade
Starting line Boafo +18. 14.4% split their ticket.
+156
10
Precinct 007-007 (Anne Arundel County)persuade
Starting line Chaffee +9. 13.6% split their ticket.
+144
11
Precinct 007-023 (Anne Arundel County)persuade
Starting line Boafo +4. 15.7% split their ticket.
+141
12
Precinct 007-006 (Anne Arundel County)persuade
Starting line Chaffee +11. 12.7% split their ticket.
+134

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) carries the most.

Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 652. It sits at Chaffee +40 on our starting line, and 5.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County) is a turnout race.

Chaffee's side leads Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County) by about 40 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 506 votes there.

Precinct 007-023 (Anne Arundel County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 007-023 (Anne Arundel County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 13,043 net votes. The gap is 92,875. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 4.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Chaffee's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 224
Slope: 0.942
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 29

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Chaffee's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Chaffee, with Boafo, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,195 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 27,420 of them live where Chaffee is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 35.7 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 33.1 points; Alsobrooks carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 18.8 points.

Chaffee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boafo.
In Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) and Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 29.2 points toward Chaffee's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

5,318 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 101,496 dials to 33,832 households, before the last ballot is cast.

34K

households on the target list

101K

dials across three attempts

5,318

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,891 at our published rates: 33,832 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Chris Chaffee (R)

A Calvert County general contractor and farmer who studied at Prince George's Community College and the University of Maryland.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Adrian Boafo (D)

A state delegate for Prince George's County District 23 since 2023 and a former Bowie City Council member (elected 2019). He previously managed Rep. Steny Hoyer's campaign, worked as a House press staffer, and graduated from the University of Baltimore and American University.

Cash on hand $91,867 and $1,676,916 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Mildred Marie Hall (Oth)

A Prince George's County resident certified as a write-in candidate for the 5th District.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Boafo +33.9. Chris Chaffee needs 92,875 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Chris Chaffee win Maryland's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,043 net votes; the gap is 92,875. The rest would take a 29.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Chris Chaffee needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County), Precinct 002-001 (St. Mary's County), Precinct 006-001 (St. Mary's County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Chris Chaffee need to persuade?

About 5,098 voters who lean Adrian Boafo today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,195 persuadable voters leaning Adrian Boafo.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.