Upset Brief · MD-06 · Robin Ficker (R) vs. April McClain Delaney (D), incumbent

Ficker can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

18%
odds today
50%
odds with the plan
16,394
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 013-001 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ficker +42. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,887 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +309
  2. 02
    Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County)
    Starting line Ficker +22. 9.8% split their ticket. About 2,000 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +256
  3. 03
    Precinct 026-001 (Washington County)
    Starting line Ficker +26. 6.3% split their ticket. About 2,365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +243
  4. 04
    Precinct 009-007 (Frederick County)
    Starting line Delaney +8. 12.8% split their ticket.
    +239
  5. 05
    Precinct 015-002 (Frederick County)
    Starting line Ficker +28. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +227
  6. 06
    Precinct 021-000 (Washington County)
    Starting line Delaney +3. 9.3% split their ticket.
    +213

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    11,259 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Delaney today.
    +11,259
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 37,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ficker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,605
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ficker's way.
    +575
What has to be true
  1. Ficker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Delaney.
  2. In Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) and Precinct 026-001 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Maryland results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    214 precincts, R² 0.994, 52 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -31,492 to 31,163 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ficker $401 cash on hand; Delaney $307,611.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    42,852 households, 128,556 dials, about 6,736 live conversations: an estimated $12,731 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $12,731 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.