Maryland · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

How Robin Ficker wins.

Delaney starts 6.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Ficker needs 16,394 net votes, and the math closes using 100 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 013-001 (Washington County), Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County) and Precinct 026-001 (Washington County).

16,394

net votes between Ficker and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

6.3 pts

Delaney lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Ficker can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today18%

Odds with the plan50%

Net votes to find16,394

WherePrecinct 013-001 (Washington County), Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County), Precinct 026-001 (Washington County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Delaney +6.3. Robin Ficker needs 16,394 net votes. Odds 18% today, 50% with the plan.

The number

129,740 votes.

That is half of the 259,478 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ficker stands today, and what is missing:

119,717 Robin Ficker baseline

136,111 April McClain Delaney baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

18% today. 50% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ficker wins in

50%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

18%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ficker by 13.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,259

Who. 11,259 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Delaney today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ficker needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Delaney.

Mobilize

4,605

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 37,944

Who. At least 37,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ficker's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

575

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,642

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ficker's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 16,439 net votes against a gap of 16,394. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 013-001 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ficker +42. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,887 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+309
02
Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County)mobilize
Starting line Ficker +22. 9.8% split their ticket. About 2,000 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+256
03
Precinct 026-001 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ficker +26. 6.3% split their ticket. About 2,365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+243
04
Precinct 009-007 (Frederick County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +8. 12.8% split their ticket.
+239
05
Precinct 015-002 (Frederick County)mobilize
Starting line Ficker +28. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+227
06
Precinct 021-000 (Washington County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +3. 9.3% split their ticket.
+213
07
Precinct 013-001 (Frederick County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +10. 12.0% split their ticket.
+204
08
Precinct 023-000 (Washington County)mobilize
Starting line Ficker +57. 2.1% split their ticket. About 871 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+195
09
Precinct 009-002 (Frederick County)persuade
Starting line Ficker +1. 11.5% split their ticket.
+190
10
Precinct 007-002 (Frederick County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +27. 12.9% split their ticket.
+189
11
Precinct 009-035 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +55. 12.9% split their ticket.
+164
12
Precinct 002-005 (Frederick County)persuade
Starting line Delaney +50. 11.2% split their ticket.
+161

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) carries the most.

Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 309. It sits at Ficker +42 on our starting line, and 4.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 026-001 (Washington County) is a turnout race.

Ficker's side leads Precinct 026-001 (Washington County) by about 26 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 209 votes there.

Precinct 007-002 (Frederick County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 007-002 (Frederick County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Delaney had $308K in cash on hand to Ficker's $401. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ficker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 214
Slope: 0.962
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 2.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 52

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ficker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ficker, with Delaney, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,259 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 37,944 of them live where Ficker is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 6.3 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.7 points; Hogan carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 11.1 points.

Ficker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Delaney.
In Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) and Precinct 026-001 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Maryland results show is possible.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

6,736 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 128,556 dials to 42,852 households, before the last ballot is cast.

43K

households on the target list

129K

dials across three attempts

6,736

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $12,731 at our published rates: 42,852 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Robin Ficker (R)

A Montgomery County real estate broker who served in the Maryland House of Delegates from 1979 to 1983 and led the 2016 Montgomery County term-limits ballot initiative, which passed with 69% of the vote.

Cash on hand $401 and $403,934 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

April McClain Delaney (D)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 2025 and deputy administrator of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration from 2022 to 2023. A lawyer and Montgomery County resident, she won a crowded 2026 primary to earn renomination.

Cash on hand $307,611 and $12,308,220 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Moshe Landman (G)

A Maryland native and New York-licensed attorney who founded Landman Law, Maryland Metal and Maryland Medicinals and works as a commercial mortgage broker. He holds degrees from Yeshiva University, George Mason University (MBA) and Georgetown University Law Center (JD).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Delaney +6.3. Robin Ficker needs 16,394 net votes. Odds 18% today, 50% with the plan.

Questions

Can Robin Ficker win Maryland's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Robin Ficker needs 16,394 net votes, and recent Maryland results show about 16,439 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 100 percent of that.

Where are the votes Robin Ficker needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 013-001 (Washington County), Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County), Precinct 026-001 (Washington County), Precinct 009-007 (Frederick County), Precinct 015-002 (Frederick County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Robin Ficker need to persuade?

About 5,630 voters who lean April McClain Delaney today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,259 persuadable voters leaning April McClain Delaney.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.