A long shot on the math: it takes a 54.0-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +50. 13.2% split their ticket.
   +196
2. 02
   Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +50. 14.8% split their ticket.
   +185
3. 03
   Precinct 007-023 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +63. 14.3% split their ticket.
   +184
4. 04
   Precinct 007-019 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +67. 12.2% split their ticket.
   +168
5. 05
   Precinct 004-016 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +51. 12.4% split their ticket.
   +151
6. 06
   Precinct 007-015 (Montgomery County)

   Starting line Raskin +62. 13.5% split their ticket.
   +147

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  13,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Raskin today.
  +13,312
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Riley's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +503

Plus a national shift of 54 points of margin (144,981 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Riley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Raskin.
2. It would take a national shift of about 54.0 points toward Riley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  199 precincts, R² 0.946, 37 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -176,280 to -113,087 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Riley $1,806 cash on hand; Raskin $7,893,447.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  19,363 households, 58,090 dials, about 3,044 live conversations: an estimated $7,197 at published rates.