Maryland · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Cheryl Riley.

Raskin starts 59.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 13,815 net votes toward Riley, a 5.1-point gain. Winning outright would take a 54.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Riley the one standing if one comes.

158,797

net votes between Riley and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

59.2 pts

Raskin lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Maryland races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 54.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find158,797

WherePrecinct 013-038 (Montgomery County), Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County), Precinct 007-023 (Montgomery County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Raskin +59.2. Cheryl Riley needs 158,797 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

134,212 votes.

That is half of the 268,423 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Riley stands today, and what is missing:

51,240 Cheryl Riley baseline

210,037 Jamie Raskin baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, U.S. Senate, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Riley wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Riley short by 144,685.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,312

Who. 13,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Raskin today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Riley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Raskin.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Riley's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

503

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,438

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Riley's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,815 net votes against a gap of 158,797. Still 144,982 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 54 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 14% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +50. 13.2% split their ticket.
+196
02
Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +50. 14.8% split their ticket.
+185
03
Precinct 007-023 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +63. 14.3% split their ticket.
+184
04
Precinct 007-019 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +67. 12.2% split their ticket.
+168
05
Precinct 004-016 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +51. 12.4% split their ticket.
+151
06
Precinct 007-015 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +62. 13.5% split their ticket.
+147
07
Precinct 006-005 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +46. 13.2% split their ticket.
+146
08
Precinct 008-006 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +42. 12.0% split their ticket.
+146
09
Precinct 007-004 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +70. 9.6% split their ticket.
+143
10
Precinct 004-003 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +66. 9.9% split their ticket.
+136
11
Precinct 004-012 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +49. 12.9% split their ticket.
+136
12
Precinct 004-008 (Montgomery County)persuade
Starting line Raskin +69. 9.8% split their ticket.
+132

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County) carries the most.

Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 196. It sits at Raskin +50 on our starting line, and 13.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Raskin had $7.89 million in cash on hand to Riley's $1,806. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 13,815 net votes. The gap is 158,797. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.1 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Riley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 199
Slope: 0.974
R²: 0.946
Residual SD: 3.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 37

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Riley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 13
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Riley, with Raskin, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 14 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,312 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 22 to 29
Bank the ballots
Mail-in ballots began going out September 19, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Riley is favored. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 10 a.m. on November 13, or placed in a drop box by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Maryland offers same-day registration during early voting and on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 56.3 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 55.8 points; Alsobrooks carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 36.1 points.

Riley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Raskin.
The national environment moves about 54.0 points toward Riley's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,044 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 58,090 dials to 19,363 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

58K

dials across three attempts

3,044

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,197 at our published rates: 19,363 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Cheryl Riley (R)

A public relations executive born in Washington, D.C., and raised in Montgomery County, where she attended Montgomery College and the University of Maryland, College Park.

Cash on hand $1,806 and $16,590 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jamie Raskin (D)

U.S. representative for the 8th District since 2017 and a Maryland state senator from 2007 to 2016. A former American University constitutional law professor, he founded the Democracy Summer youth civic program and co-founded the Marshall-Brennan Constitutional Literacy Project.

Cash on hand $7,893,447 and $7,425,389 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Nancy Wallace (G)

A Bethesda environmental advocate and Yale political science graduate who founded the International Entanglement Network, served as a Sierra Club director and co-founded Sustainable Montgomery; she was the Green Party nominee for governor in 2022.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Raskin +59.2. Cheryl Riley needs 158,797 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Cheryl Riley win Maryland's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 13,815 net votes; the gap is 158,797. The rest would take a 54.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Cheryl Riley needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County), Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County), Precinct 007-023 (Montgomery County), Precinct 007-019 (Montgomery County), Precinct 004-016 (Montgomery County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Cheryl Riley need to persuade?

About 6,656 voters who lean Jamie Raskin today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,312 persuadable voters leaning Jamie Raskin.

When does early voting start in Maryland in 2026?

Maryland mails ballots to voters who request them, starting September 19, 2026, and early voting runs October 22 through October 29, 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. The registration deadline is October 13, and same-day registration is available during early voting and on Election Day. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by 10 a.m. on November 13.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Maryland State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.