Upset Brief · MI-01 · Callie Barr (D) vs. Jack Bergman (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
75,130
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Marquette
    Starting line Barr +37. 4.8% split their ticket. About 2,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +524
  2. 02
    Traverse City (Grand Traverse County)
    Starting line Barr +34. 5.2% split their ticket. About 1,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +402
  3. 03
    Garfield Township (Grand Traverse County)
    Starting line Barr +4. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +374
  4. 04
    Sault Ste. Marie
    Starting line Bergman +5. 9.1% split their ticket.
    +240
  5. 05
    East Bay Township (Grand Traverse County)
    Starting line Bergman +6. 5.9% split their ticket.
    +226
  6. 06
    Alpena Township (Alpena County)
    Starting line Bergman +24. 8.2% split their ticket.
    +210

The top 12 cities and townships carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,245 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bergman today.
    +13,245
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,061 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Barr's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +607
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Barr's way.
    +1,293

Plus a national shift of 15.1 points of margin (59,985 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Barr wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bergman.
  2. In Marquette and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 15.1 points toward Barr's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    538 precincts, R² 0.984, 79 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -105,792 to -13,673 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Barr $530,725 cash on hand; Bergman $660,163.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,699 households, 77,097 dials, about 4,040 live conversations: an estimated $8,594 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,594 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.