What it would take for Callie Barr.
Bergman starts 19.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 15,145 net votes toward Barr, a 3.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 15.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Barr the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.1-point national wave.
198,137 votes.
That is half of the 396,272 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Barr stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 13,245 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bergman today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Barr needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bergman.
Who. At least 7,061 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Barr's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Barr's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 15,145 net votes against a gap of 75,130. Still 59,985 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 15.1 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and townships carry 20% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+524MarquettemobilizeStarting line Barr +37. 4.8% split their ticket. About 2,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+402Traverse City (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Barr +34. 5.2% split their ticket. About 1,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+374Garfield Township (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Barr +4. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 04+240Sault Ste. MariepersuadeStarting line Bergman +5. 9.1% split their ticket.
- 05+226East Bay Township (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Bergman +6. 5.9% split their ticket.
- 06+210Alpena Township (Alpena County)persuadeStarting line Bergman +24. 8.2% split their ticket.
- 07+207Long Lake Township (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Bergman +7. 6.3% split their ticket.
- 08+194AlpenapersuadeStarting line Bergman +9. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 09+169EscanabapersuadeStarting line Bergman +12. 6.3% split their ticket.
- 10+167Blair Township (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Bergman +21. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 11+145Peninsula Township (Grand Traverse County)persuadeStarting line Barr +8. 6.1% split their ticket.
- 12+144Bear Creek Township (Emmet County)persuadeStarting line Bergman +10. 7.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Marquette carries the most.
Marquette gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 524. It sits at Barr +37 on our starting line, and 4.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Traverse City (Grand Traverse County) is a turnout target.
Barr's side leads Traverse City (Grand Traverse County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,206 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 133 votes there.
Sault Ste. Marie splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and townships in this plan, Sault Ste. Marie has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The money is close.
As of July 15, 2026, Bergman had $660K in cash on hand to Barr's $531K. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Barr's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 538
- Slope
- 0.973
- R²
- 0.984
- Residual SD
- 2.8 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 79
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Barr's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Ballots are already coming in.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Barr, with Bergman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
- October 10 to 23Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,245 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 24 to 30Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,061 of them live where Barr is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 21.2 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 20.3 points; Dixon carried the 2022 governor's race by 9.3 points.
- Barr wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bergman.
- In Marquette and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 15.1 points toward Barr's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
4,040 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 77,097 dials to 25,699 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,594 at our published rates: 25,699 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Callie Barr (D)
A Traverse City attorney and former high school English teacher whose family roots in northern Michigan go back five generations; she was valedictorian at Cheboygan High School, earned a secondary education degree from Central Michigan University and a law degree with honors from the University of Michigan Law School, and has advocated for military families as the spouse of a Marine combat veteran.
Cash on hand $530,725 and $824,341 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Jack Bergman (R)
U.S. representative for Michigan's 1st District since 2017 and chair of the Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee; he served in the U.S. Marine Corps from 1969 to 2009, retiring as a lieutenant general, flew as a commercial airline pilot for 22 years and launched two medical equipment businesses. Born in Shakopee, Minnesota, he holds a business degree from Gustavus Adolphus College and an MBA from the University of West Florida.
Cash on hand $660,163 and $1,917,574 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
LaVeta Davenport (G)
Founder of Levadeh, a nonprofit organization focused on health, education, relationships and ownership.
Zebulon Featherly (I)
A Houghton native and Houghton High School graduate who attended Eastern Michigan University and graduated from the Northwestern Renewable Energy Institute in 2017; he has worked as a wind turbine technician and is now an apprentice electrician.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bergman +19.0. Callie Barr needs 75,130 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 2% with the plan.
Questions
Can Callie Barr win Michigan's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 15,145 net votes against a gap of 75,130; the rest would take a 15.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Callie Barr needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Marquette, Traverse City (Grand Traverse County), Garfield Township (Grand Traverse County), Sault Ste. Marie, East Bay Township (Grand Traverse County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Callie Barr need to persuade?
About 6,622 voters who lean Jack Bergman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,245 persuadable voters leaning Jack Bergman.
When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?
Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Michigan Bureau of Elections, election results and data
- Michigan Department of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Michigan's 1st congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Michigan's 1st Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Jack Bergman
- Ballotpedia: Zebulon Featherly
- Ballotpedia: LaVeta Davenport