Upset Brief · MI-10 · Christina Hines (D) vs. Michael Bouchard (R)

Hines can win. The plan uses 34 percent of what history allows.

43%
odds today
50%
odds with the plan
4,254
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Rochester Hills
    Starting line Hines +1. 7.1% split their ticket.
    +1,366
  2. 02
    St. Clair Shores
    Starting line Bouchard +4. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +1,045
  3. 03
    Eastpointe
    Starting line Hines +52. 4.3% split their ticket. About 4,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +461
  4. 04
    Harrison Township (Macomb County)
    Starting line Bouchard +16. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +416
  5. 05
    Warren
    Starting line Hines +13. 6.0% split their ticket.
    +387
  6. 06
    Macomb Township (Macomb County)
    Starting line Bouchard +20. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +353

The top 10 cities and townships carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,468 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bouchard today.
    +3,570
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 7,864 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Hines's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +331
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Hines's way.
    +567
What has to be true
  1. Hines wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bouchard.
  2. In Eastpointe, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 34 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    288 precincts, R² 0.982, 42 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -38,351 to 38,227 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Hines $158,196 cash on hand; Bouchard $1,144,520.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    7,392 households, 22,175 dials, about 1,162 live conversations: an estimated $3,850 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,850 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.