Michigan · U.S. House · District 10 · November 3, 2026

How Christina Hines wins.

Bouchard starts 1.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Hines needs 4,254 net votes, and the plan uses 34 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Rochester Hills, St. Clair Shores and Eastpointe.

4,254

net votes between Hines and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

1.3 pts

Bouchard lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Hines can win. The plan uses 34 percent of what history allows.

Odds today43%

Odds with the plan50%

Net votes to find4,254

WhereRochester Hills, St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Bouchard +1.3. Christina Hines needs 4,254 net votes. Odds 43% today, 50% with the plan.

The number

167,398 votes.

That is half of the 334,795 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hines stands today, and what is missing:

160,616 Christina Hines baseline

164,870 Michael Bouchard baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). Published 2026 polls for this race do not set this line. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

43% today. 50% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hines wins in

50%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

43%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves34%

The plan on this page sits at 34%. Median outcome at this setting: Hines by 180.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,570

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,468

Who. 10,468 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bouchard today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hines needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning Bouchard.

Mobilize

331

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,864

Who. At least 7,864 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Hines's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

567

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,747

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Hines's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,468 net votes against a gap of 4,254. That is a win.

Where it is won

10 cities and townships carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Rochester Hillspersuade
Starting line Hines +1. 7.1% split their ticket.
+1,366
02
St. Clair Shorespersuade
Starting line Bouchard +4. 6.7% split their ticket.
+1,045
03
Eastpointemobilize
Starting line Hines +52. 4.3% split their ticket. About 4,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+461
04
Harrison Township (Macomb County)persuade
Starting line Bouchard +16. 6.6% split their ticket.
+416
05
Warrenconsolidate
Starting line Hines +13. 6.0% split their ticket.
+387
06
Macomb Township (Macomb County)persuade
Starting line Bouchard +20. 6.6% split their ticket.
+353
07
Rochesterpersuade
Starting line Bouchard +2. 7.6% split their ticket.
+266
08
Fraserpersuade
Starting line Bouchard +1. 6.5% split their ticket.
+124
09
Center Lineconsolidate
Starting line Hines +20. 5.7% split their ticket.
+27
10
Rosevilleconsolidate
Starting line Hines +12. 6.1% split their ticket.
+23

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Rochester Hills carries the most.

Rochester Hills gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 1,366. It sits at Hines +1 on our starting line, and 7.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Eastpointe is a turnout target.

Hines's side leads Eastpointe by about 52 points on our starting line, and it cast about 4,862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 331 votes there.

Rochester splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Rochester has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Bouchard had $1.14 million in cash on hand to Hines's $158K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hines's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 288
Slope: 1.005
R²: 0.982
Residual SD: 3.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 42

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hines's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hines, with Bouchard, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,570 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 7,864 of them live where Hines is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 6.5 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 2.9 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 12.0 points.

Hines wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bouchard.
In Eastpointe, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 34 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

1,162 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 22,175 dials to 7,392 households, before the last ballot is cast.

7,392

households on the target list

22K

dials across three attempts

1,162

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,850 at our published rates: 7,392 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Christina Hines (D)

Former prosecutor who began her career in the Wayne County Prosecutor's Office and served as chief of the Special Victims Unit and Appeals in the Washtenaw County prosecutor's office; a Macomb County native who lives in Warren, with degrees from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University Law School.

Cash on hand $158,196 and $1,211,489 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Michael Bouchard (R)

Michigan Army National Guard captain and Michigan State University graduate who served with the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions and deployed to Iraq with a joint task force against ISIS, earning the Bronze Star; son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

Cash on hand $1,144,520 and $1,623,745 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Mike Saliba (L)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Kwabena Nkromo (G)

Also on the ballot

Andrea L. Kirby (WC)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bouchard +1.3. Christina Hines needs 4,254 net votes. Odds 43% today, 50% with the plan.

Questions

Can Christina Hines win Michigan's 10th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Christina Hines needs 4,254 net votes, and recent Michigan results show about 13,100 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 34 percent of that.

Where are the votes Christina Hines needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Rochester Hills, St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe, Harrison Township (Macomb County), Warren. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Christina Hines need to persuade?

About 1,785 voters who lean Michael Bouchard today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 10,468 persuadable voters leaning Michael Bouchard.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.